If the NHL playoffs began today, the Tampa Bay Lightning would enter as the fifth-seeded team in the east, taking on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Only two Eastern Conference playoff teams have scored more goals this season than the Lightning, but none have given up nearly as many as they have. In fact, with 216 goals for and 222 against, the Lightning are the only of the top eight teams in the east to give up more goals than they’ve scored.

In 73 games this season, the Tampa Bay is 39-23-11. How, with so many more wins than losses, are they minus-six in goal differential? Well if you break down their record, you’ll see that in games decided by two or more goals, the Lightning are even at 17-17. That means 39 of their games this season – over half – have been decided by one goal. The Lightning have won eight in regulation, lost six, won 14 more after 60 minutes and only earned a single point in the final 11 games.

In other words, when they win by two ore more goals, it’s usually closer to two, and when they lose by at least two, more often than not it’s a blowout. Four times this season they’ve lost by five or more goals, including an 8-1 routing by the Penguins. Only twice this season have the Lightning won by a margin greater than four.

Scoring has come from many places this season. Steven Stamkos leads the team with 86 points while Martin St. Louis is right behind at 85. Other than these two, no player has more than 48 points. Among the 17 players who have played in at least half of the Lightning’s games, the average point total is 24; an impressively low total for a fifth-seeded team. The Lightning will make it into the playoffs based on grit alone, but if they want to go deep and challenge for the Cup, they’ll need to find scoring and they’ll need it in bunches, or else they’ll tire themselves out with a lot of long series with many tiring, one-goal games.