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Thursday January 25, 2007 10:25 pm

Stat’s All Folks: Substitute Teacher

Steve Nash Stat’s All Folks will be a week-to-week stock market look at the standard cumulative categories – points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, steals, and blocks.  I’ll be calling out the “bulls” and “bears” in each category, in order to help you assess your portfolio of players on your fantasy basketball team(s) and whether you should sell, hold, and/or diversify your assets. 

Note that you won’t always see the superstar player written about in this column, otherwise it would be LeBron James or Steve Nash every week.  So, check out who’s bullish and who’s bearish coming into the week.

Statistics are from January 15th – January 21st.

It is a pleasure to sub in for Dennis this week. Let us get right to it!

POINTS

BULLISH

Dwyane Wade, PG/SG, Miami Heat
Last Week’s Numbers of Note:  4 G; 31.8 PPG; 49.0 FG%; 77.5 FT%

Wade missed four games around the holidays but has come back logging big minutes and posting even bigger numbers. Last week Wade scored 30 or more points in three of four contests. The beauty in his game lies not only in his points production, but in his around game; he also averaged almost eight assists and three steals last week. Wade drained two three-pointers over the four games, which is below average for a fantasy guard, but at least he still provides a little help to your team there.

Other Blue-Chippers for the Week
Gilbert Arenas, PG, Washington Wizards: 4 G; 29.8 PPG
Kobe Bryant, SG, Los Angeles Lakers: 4 G; 27.0 PPG
Elton Brand, PF, Los Angeles Clippers: 3 G; 26.7 PPG

Keep An Eye On
Mehmet Okur,  PF/C, Utah Jazz: 4 G; 27.0 PPG
Al Harrington, PF/C, Golden State Warriors: 3 G; 20.7 PPG
Carmelo Anthony, SF, Denver Nuggets: 0 G; 0 PPG

BEARISH

Shawn Marion, SF/PF, Phoenix Suns
Last Week’s Numbers of Note:  4 G; 14.3 PPG; 54.2 FG%; 0.0 FT%

A tough outing against Portland (4 points on 2-for-9 shooting) hurt a lot of Matrix owners last week. Never one to visit the charity stripe regularly, Marion shot two free-throw attempts for the entire week and missed both shots. Of course, his value lies mostly in the hustle stats. In the same Portland game, he swiped two balls and blocked five shots. Marion appears to be over his scoring slump as he has started this week off with games of 20 and 21 points.


Other Duds for the Week
Mike Bibby, PG, Sacramento Kings: 4 G; 13.5 PPG
Jason Terry, PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks: 3 G; 10.0 PPG
Ben Wallace, PF/C, Chicago Bulls: 2 G; 6.5 PPG

Buyer Beware
Tracy McGrady, SG/SF, Houston Rockets: 2 G; 34.5 PPG
Delonte West, PG/SG, Boston Celtics: 2 G; 19.0 PPG
Rafer Alston, PG, Houston Rockets: 3 G; 19.0 PPG


ASSISTS

BULLISH

Steve Nash, PG, Phoenix Suns
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 4 G; 11.3 APG; 2.3 TO

An attempt was made to spotlight someone other than the two-time reigning MVP here, because he makes a case for being a bull each and every single week. However the fact remains that Nash continues to answer the bell again and again. He has the Suns on a massive winning streak, and had two games last week with zero turnovers, which might have helped owners make a weekend run in that particular category.

Other Blue-Chippers For The Week
Jason Terry, PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks: 3 G; 10.7 APG
Allen Iverson, PG/SG, Denver Nuggets: 2 G; 9.5 APG
Deron Williams, PG, Utah Jazz: 4 G; 9.5 APG

Keep An Eye On
Andre Miller, PG, Philadelphia 76ers: 4 G; 6.8 APG
Jose Calderon, PG, Toronto Raptors: 3 G; 6.0 APG
Ray Felton, PG, Charlotte Bobcats: 2 G; 6.0 APG

BEARISH

Kevin Garnett, SF/PF, Minnesota Timberwolves
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 3 G; 4.0 APG; 2.7 TO

Garnett had previously been slowly upping the dime-dishing to his typical 5 per game water-mark. However a one-game suspension on January 21 killed a lot of fantasy owners embroiled in tight match-ups for the week. Considering he also failed to register 20 points in any of the three games that he did play, and it all adds up to a down week for the Big Ticket. 

Other Duds For The Week
Charlie Bell, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks: 4 G; 2.5 APG
Smush Parker, PG, Los Angeles Lakers: 4 G; 2.0 APG
Rasheed Wallace, PF/C, Detroit Pistons: 4 G; 1.0 APG

Buyer Beware
Sam Cassell, PG, Los Angeles Clippers: 3 G; 12.0 APG
Richard Jefferson, SF, New Jersey Nets: 4 G; 6.3 APG
Chucky Atkins, PG, Memphis Grizzlies: 3 G; 3.7 APG


REBOUNDS

BULLISH

Marcus Camby, C, Denver Nuggets
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 2 G; 19.5 RPG

Anyone who missed out on their fantasy championship title last year because they did not take advantage of their sell-high opportunity with Camby is still likely smarting from the missed opportunity. So for fantasy owners that drafted Camby this year, take note that his value will never be higher. Camby has only missed four games so far this season. History shows that he has played more than 70 games in a season only once in his career. Try to trade him for good value now before this game of Russian roulette blows up in your face.

Other Blue-Chippers For The Week
Carlos Boozer, PF/C, Utah Jazz: 4 G; 13.8 RPG
Zach Randolph, PF, Portland Trail Blazers: 3 G; 13.0 RPG
David Lee, PF, New York Knicks: 4 G; 11.8 RPG

Keep An Eye On
Nick Collison, PF/C, Seattle SuperSonics: 2 G; 14.0 RPG
David West, PF, New Orleans Hornets: 2 G; 11.5 RPG
Andrew Bynum, C, Los Angeles Lakers: 4 G; 7.5 RPG

BEARISH

Danny Granger, SF/PF, Indiana Pacers
Last Week’s Numbers of Note:  3 G; 4.0 RPG

Granger was drafted with the hope that he would earn major minutes in the Pacers’ rotation, becoming a do-everything type of sparkplug for fantasy owners this year. Even with more playing time, Granger has yet to be a consistent contributor in the rebounding department. Watch to see if he can get his average in the 5-6 per game range over the next few weeks. Consider using his recent scoring outburst as leveragedto acquire a more consistent chairman of the boards.

Other Duds For The Week
Channing Frye, PF/C, New York Knicks: 4 G; 4.8 RPG
Jorge Garbajosa, PF/C, Toronto Raptors: 3 G; 3.3 RPG
Vlad Radmanovic, PF, Los Angeles Lakers: 4 G; 2.3 RPG

Buyer Beware
Troy Murphy, PF/C, Indiana Pacers: 2 G; 10.0 RPG
Gerald Wallace, SF/PF, Charlotte Bobcats: 2 G; 9.0 RPG
Drew Gooden, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers: 4 G; 5.8 RPG


THREE POINTERS

BULLISH

Mehmet Okur, PF/C, Utah Jazz
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 4 G; 2.8 3PTM

The forecast last week included a lot of rain from downtown Utah! What a luxury it must be to have a bona fide big man contributing so much in a traditionally small ball category. Okur is an efficient shooter from everywhere and hits the boards steadily. Although he does not block shots as much as other top center options, his shooting range makes him a very unique fantasy player.

Other Blue-Chippers For The Week
Gilbert Arenas, PG, Washington Wizards: 4 G; 3.5 3PG
J. R. Smith, SG, Denver Nuggets: 2 G; 3.5 3PG
Ray Allen, SG, Seattle SuperSonics: 2 G; 3.0 3PG

Keep An Eye On
Antawn Jamison, SF/PF, Washington Wizards: 4 G; 3.3 3PG
Antoine Walker, SF/PF, Miami Heat: 4 G; 2.3 3PG
Randy Foye, PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves: 4G; 2.0 3PG

BEARISH

Baron Davis, PG, Golden State Warriors
Last Week’s Numbers of Note:  3 G; 0.7 3PTM

Baron Davis owners have been riding high for most of the season. With only two moneyballs in the last five games, and a plummeting field goal percentage overall, Baron could be reverting back to his roto-killer ways. Despite the cold streak, he remains a prime time player in assists and steals.

Buyer Beware
J. J. Redick, SG, Orlando Magic: 1 G; 3.0 3PG
Chucky Atkins, PG, Memphis Grizzlies: 3 G; 2.7 3PG
James Jones, SF, Phoenix Suns: 4 G; 1.8 3PG


STEALS

BULLISH

Stephen Jackson, SG/SF, Golden State Warriors
Last Week’s Numbers of Note:  2 G; 4.0 SPG

Jackson certainly started off on the right foot after the big trade. Big game potential in the hustle stats is hard to find, and he swiped the ball five times in a game against Cleveland last week. One big game like that usually is enough production for an entire week. While with Indiana he was averaging just under a steal per game, so roll with it while the dice is coming up sevens.

Other Blue-Chippers For The Week
Andre Iguodala, SG/SF, Philadelphia 76ers: 4 G; 2.8 SPG
Dwyane Wade, PG/SG, Miami Heat: 4 G; 2.8 SPG
Allen Iverson, PG, Denver Nuggets: 2 G; 2.5 SPG

Keep An Eye On
Earl Watson, PG, Seattle SuperSonics: 2 G; 1.5 SPG
Cuttino Mobley, SG, Los Angeles Clippers: 3 G; 1.3 SPG
Chauncey Billups, PG, Detroit Pistons: 3 G; 1.0 SPG

BEARISH

Jamal Crawford, SG, New York Knicks
Last Week’s Numbers of Note:  4 G;  0.5 SPG

Over his career, Crawford has been good for between one and 1.5 steals per game. Consider this labeling him a bear this week an indictment of his inconsistency this year. Heck, the whole Knicks team has been a roller coaster fantasy ride. Making up lost ground in steals gets harder as the year wears on, so the fringe players on your team like Crawford need to swipe the rock around the clock to get their fantasy teams in the thick of the championship mix.

Buyer Beware
Stephon Marbury, PG, New York Knicks: 2 G; 2.5 SPG
Damien Wilkins, SG/SF, Seattle SuperSonics: 2 G; 2.0 SPG
Jordan Farmer, PG, Los Angeles Lakers: 4 G; 1.3 SPG


BLOCKS

BULLISH

Josh Smith, SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks
Last Week’s Numbers of Note:  4 G; 3.8 BPG

How many players can block seven shots in a whole week, let alone a single game? With Andrei Kirilenko vacating the title of top dog in the hustle categories this year, J-Smoove has been more than willing to step into the role since coming back from injury. That five-steal-seven-block game on January 15 was a gem of a stat-line. Fantasy owners who took Smith in the third round this year should reap huge rewards over the second half.

Other Blue-Chippers For The Week
Marcus Camby, C, Denver Nuggets: 2 G; 3.5 BPG
Emeka Okafor, PF/C, Charlotte Bobcats: 4 G; 3.5 BPG
Tim Duncan, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs: 4 G; 3.3 BPG

Keep An Eye On
Al Jefferson, PF/C, Boston Celtics: 3 G; 2.3 BPG
Nene, PF/C, Denver Nuggets: 2 G; 2.0 BPG
Chris Kaman, C, Los Angeles Clippers: 3 G; 0.7 BPG

BEARISH

Carlos Boozer, PF/C, Utah Jazz
Last Week’s Numbers of Note:  4 G; 0.0 BPG

Boozer has not blocked a shot since December 17 against Indiana. Utah has been the best surprise of the first half, and Boozer has deserved mention in the MVP race. However in fantasyland, his sexy numbers in points and rebounds come at the cost of virtually no contribution in blocks. Unlike some players that go through a statistical slump here and there, this is a proven trend in Boozer’s game. He makes good trade bait right now.

Buyer Beware
Alonzo Mourning, C, Miami Heat: 4 G; 2.5 BPG
Etan Thomas, PF/C, Washington Wizards: 4 G; 2.3 BPG
Rasual Butler, SG, New Orleans Hornets: 3 G; 1.3 BPG

I’ll be here every week during the regular season, trying to become the Gordon Gekko of fantasy basketball.  Be my Bud Fox.

Dennis Velasco is the Managing Editor of DroppingDimes.com and the Basketball Guide at About.com (can you use the following link in the coding – probasketball.about.com – thanks!).  He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and Association for Professional Basketball Research.  Feel free to e-mail him at dennis@droppingdimes.com

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