You ask as though it hasn't already happened.

Re: #2. My main beef with Vista is the loss of control. I have to phone MS for permission to use my OS after a re-install. Unsolicited balloon tips popping up everywhere, providing me with useless information. Rebooting my machine without permission, or pestering me every 15 mins to reboot.

I like Vista

Right on the money. I think for developers like myself, Vista is utterly attrocious. I just doesn't gel with anything else other than developing on .Net using Visual Studio. Sure you can run Python & Ruby on Vista, but the "method of development" and the interface to those technologies is sooo much more clunky than on Mac OS X or Ubuntu.

Isn't the rapid release of the next windows and the support extention pretty much saying that MS expects Vista to never get picked up by enterprise?

The answer is no. Vista is selling incredibly well with new PC's and the installed base is already huge by any reasonable measure. The adoption rate is well within the ballpark set for other major OS upgrades like XP. There have been no major security flaws and in fact Vista's track record on this is great. What would define "failure" then? It sells. It sells well and the adoption rate is good. There is a PR problem - but that is soluble.

Better question - when did Vista "jump the shark" or what feature pushed it over the edge?

Anyway, even if it fails in the sense of sales, I still think that--for all the bad PR--Vista is a pretty good OS, I love using it on my laptop.

@Soulhunte. You mean, PCs are selling well. End users don't have a choice, unlike businesses. According to HP: "What we have been able to do with Microsoft is ship PCs with a Vista Business licence but with XP pre-loaded. That is still the majority of business computers we are selling today."

Another thing -- in the 90s, before blogging was big, Microsoft had a big outreach program to build buzz around its products. It was really impressive. Now that blogging is established -- nothing -- silence. Esp when there's so much buzz around Apple, this may be the biggest mistake they're making with Vista.

LOL @Brent Logan. Vista is the reason our soon-to-be purchased laptops will be Macs. It will be the first time in 25 years. I will use a mac on purpose or without getting paid/forced to do so. We're running XP on all of computers and we know we'll have to "upgrade" soon.

@Soulhuntre: Seconding @Paul Gray; Arguing that Vista's install base is huge, and that it's commercial adoption rate is high (and the product is therefore 'successful') is much like arguing that cramped, uncomfortable seats continue to be the most popular ones in air travel. And re: 'PR problem': I have to agree with you there. Thousands of pesky users vociferously hating your product is a real PR nightmare.

Assuming Windows 7 is on schedule, we'll be seeing RTM in a little over 12 months. So for the users currently on XP, what's the point in upgrading to Vista when it'll soon be obsolete. @Soulhuntre. I don't think MS have enough time to solve their PR problem. The damage is already done, and MS will be busy selling Windows 7 by the time they get anywhere close to fixing it. MS are just limiting the damage at the moment.

Media Center on Vista works really well and is a great improvement over the previous version.

Dave? It's 404 =(

MS still actively promotes its products; it may be Dave's just not getting freebies or phone calls or other coddling from them anymore. Must be a slow news day. As for biz use, Vista uptake isn't really much slower than XP's was, or any other Windows version for that matter. Considerably more secure by default, Media Center's greatly improved... lots to like. I think the MS logo is the biggest mental hurdle for most people to overcome. An Apple logo on the box would have people vigorously humping Vista.

seems a bit unfair to slam windows for malware and then refuse to try the version that attempts to do something about it. Personally, I like Vista. I use it and OS X daily, and can't really say I prefer one too much over the other.

@Thomas. My experience of Windows Media Center has always been positive but according to Paul Thurrott, it doesn't seem like MS is putting much resources into it anymore. http://twit.tv/ww67

404 for me too.

The permalink is 404'd but its the first story on http://www.scripting.com/

If we aren't going measure success in objective terms like adoption rate, sales, market share or income generation then what possible measure do we use? Do things fail just because the vocal A-list pundit-o-sphere doesn't like it (and usually hasn't tried it?). That makes no sense. The HP thing is a non-issue as well.. at this point in XP's life biz was still buying new machines with the old OS as well.

BTW - the best current information points Windows 7 as targeted for 2010 which is well in keeping with the release cycles we see from MS. We will see widespread beta availability at least 12 months before an RTM release. There is no financial or technical reason to try and rush Windows 7 out the door. Once again, Vista is doing just fine (despite attempts to paint it as a failure) so it's not necessary to push W7 ahead in the time line. Besides, releasing R7 in 12 months wont SOLVE any PR problem.

@Paul - don't agree that "end users have no choice" when they increasingly do choose other PCs running Mac OS, Linux, etc. And if you admit that some users choose not to purchase Windows PCs then you have to admit that the rest *are choosing* to purchase Windows PCs.

Vista is better than XP, except in the case of older machines. I think most people bitching about Vista simply don't remember the early days of XP - an OS that brought the spyware plague upon us and didn't become remotely usable until SP2. Against XP in the same time period of its launch, Vista is *considerably* better.

I agree with Eric, I wish that my old desktop could run Vista.

It already did. Agree that MS will just do minimal damage control until they hump out Windows 7.

But in the mean time, once you try Mac, you never go back. Why Apple is currently blowing their second chance in a few decades to sell their OS to everyone is beyond me. I guess they just can't break out of their comfort zone of selling notebook hardware in various pacakges. Pity.

Vista feels like it was built with the noob in mind rather than the power user. Once UAC is turned off, it's not too terrible. I'm happy to see the OS fade into the background so I can get back to productive activities like Facebook and Twitter. :-)

@Steve: That's because Apple would then have to support all kinds of new hardware. You know, the same kind of issue that hardware vendors made Vista have...

@Eric Rice, but I do remember the early years of XP. I was so excited about it, installed it and got nothing but headache. It took them almost 2 yrs. to get it working right, but I had gone back to WinServer 2000 or whatever it was called. That forced my hesitation of acquiring Vista. After last year's rollout and watching my friends/clients being frustrating over some of the same issues that bugged us early XP adopters, I was fine with waiting.

@Alan. Well if you want to be pedantic, then "end users have no choice when buying a Windows machine".

Vista has the feel of an operating system at the end of the Baroque era. The human interaction layer is migrating up the stack into the browser; the requirements for an OS can be much simpler. More Bauhaus. MSFT seems to sense this with Mesh and Midori. They need to establish a new cash machine before formally winding it down.

YES VISTIA WILL FAIL

@Alan Cheslow: Keep in mind, though, that a large number of 'average users' barely understand that options like Mac or Linux exist, or, if they do, are afraid of stepping outside their computing comfort zone to learn a new system. Consequently, the 'choice' of operating system, for many people, is an illusory one;

"I think Microsoft is in bed with Hollywood" - And Apple isn't? What's with you guys who go on and on about being 'open' and 'free' but continue to use Apple products? Is there a more closed company than Apple? I don't like using XP anymore. Vista is a lot more usable *once-you-get-used-to-it* -- just like OS X and KDE/Gnome/Others on Linux.

If we are measuring success by OS usage figures, then Vista is a complete flop. 17 months after its release, XP was already at 29% usage. Vista in comparison is only at 11%. http://bit.ly/CKKl

And @Everyone comparing Vista to early XP: yes, the first two years of XP were a disaster. And, yes, Vista at this stage is probably better all around than that first iteration of XP. But arguing that this makes Vista a good operating system is, to use yet another metaphor, like arguing that being shot in the foot is a really good thing because it hurts so much less than being shot in the stomach. Besides which, when did we resign ourselves to accepting "less painful than it could be" as good enough?

@Dileepa, you're absolutely right. I used to think MSFT was the dark side, but recently I watched Star Wars episode V with my kids. Yoda said that the dark side is "quicker, easier, more seductive." We all know who that is!

I have only been using Vista extensively for the past week or so (I actually went out and bought a copy of Home Premium). The installation went pretty much without a hitch and I have been using it without problems so far.I get why developers and such would find that working on Vista would be a pita, but for average users, it's just fine imo.

I agree with a developer's post on your blog Dave. I run Vista 64-bit with 10GB RAM on a MacPro (desktop) and it runs extremely well. On notebooks it's a mixed bag--it depends what device you have as to whether everything installs, runs, and is as easy to use as it should be. There are some things that I find better than in XP though. For example, WIFI config is better (EVDO config still lags though), sleep and hibernate are MUCH more reliable (w/SP1), and battery monitoring is improved. The problem for low end notebooks with limited resources is another challenge to Vista. Here you don't have much choice but to use XP or strip down Vista using a 3rd party tool which I think breaks the license. To me the issue with Vista is that processors/RAM haven't caught up with it on the notebook side. Maybe with the convergence going on w/smart phones this won't happen for awhile and Vista will struggle till it gets thinner.

I will say it then, Vista is GREAT

I think Vista is great and I actually use it. You in your post really had nothing concrete besides media speak that would lead anyone not to use Vista. You sound like most blogger s, you are quick to kill something that you don't use. I know many people that have this preconceived notion about vista and if you use it on a daily basis like I do you see its relevance.

I use Vista on a daily basis. It irritates me.

I agree that there really is no need for new OSes. Look at Linux, it has just a version number that keeps incrementing. It'll always be called Linux. An exception might be if MS makes a complete rewrite, perhaps a windows-less OS, the promise of Midori? http://impl.emented.com/2008/08/11/vista-security-is-broken-midori-coming-to-the-rescue/