BALTIMORE:
Don’t be fooled by the 3 win run by Rodrigo Lopez. He is a fly ball pitcher who is not striking out enough hitters. Such pitchers are always living on the edge.
Daniel Cabrera is expected to be activated from the DL in time for Monday’s start against the Blue Jays. It is advisable to keep him reserved to see if the rest has an affect on his control problems.
With Cabrera back, Adam Loewen will probably return to the minors. He is not ready to contribute on the major league level due to a lack of control.
Jay Gibbons goes on the 15 day DL with soreness in his shoulder, hip and knee. The move is retroactive to May 27th and he should return when eligible. Brandon Fahey, Eddie Rogers and Luis Matos should all see some extra AB in Gibbons’ absence. Fahey and Rogers are not recommended. Matos is a better hitter than his current .184 avg. shows and can provide a temporary speed source for AL only leagues.
BOSTON
Jason Varitek is hitting just .233 with only 5 homers. At 34, one would expect the rigors of everyday catching to begin to negatively impact his statistics. But his contact rate of 85% is 10% higher than last year and his batting eye of 1.05 is well above his career marks. Based on that, he could be a good buy low candidate for a batting average rebound with an extra bonus if the power returns.
Kevin Youkillis’ value will rise or fall depending on where he settles into the Red Sox batting line-up. Mark Loretta’s presence means it will probably not be the two hole. With Varitek’s struggles, he could move to the fifth or sixth spot, where he will contribute average and RBI’s. Anything lower than that his value will take a hit.
David Wells has been put on the DL for the third time this season. With his conditioning history, age, and recurring injuries, it is doubtful that he has much left in the tank.
Trot Nixon probably becomes the everyday right-fielder for the next six to eight weeks due to Wily Mo Pena’s wrist injury. Nixon has always struggled against left-handers, so look for his batting average to decline.
NEW YORK
Shawn Chacon should be ready to return to the Yankee rotation later this week. Until a disaster 1.1 inning, 7 ER performance against Texas, Chacon was getting by with a weak skill set. He walks too many hitters and does not induce enough ground balls to make up for his lack of strike outs.
The return of Chacon will send Aaron Small to a long relief role. Poor command will keep him there.
Once the Yankees have seen enough of the empty skills of Terrence Long, Kevin Thompson could see regular time in the injury riddled Yankee lineup. A potential combination of some pop and speed could make Thompson a nice addition to an AL only league team.
Fortunately for the Yankees and many fantasy owners, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi’s various ailments are minor and all should be back playing regularly by early this week.
At 42 year old, Randy Johnson is clearly not the dominant pitcher he was in the past. But his K/9 of 6.9 and BB/9 of 3.0 are still above average. The ERA of 5.37 should improve and pitching for Yankees, he should be good for some wins.
TORONTO
It wont take the Jays long to find out that Edgardo Alfonzo is an “old” 32 years old and not the answer as a starting second basemen. The moderate power that he displayed early in his career is completely gone, leaving a hitter who makes weak contact, which lead to harmless outs.
AJ Burnett is now throwing pain-free bullpen sessions. If all continues to go well, he could be about 3 weeks from returning to the rotation.
After a nice rookie season of 13-9 with a 3.72 ERA, Gustavo Chacin’s soft skills are beginning to catch up with him. With a 2006 ERA of 5.59, his six wins have been the product of a generous Blue Jay offense when takes the mound. Poor command combined with a low G/F is not the ticket to long-term success.
TAMPA BAY
Jorge Cantu could be back with the team as early as Monday. He will immediately regain his starting second base job. The Jays will almost certainly keep Ty Wiggington in the lineup, playing him in the outfield and first base. That will cut into the AB of Travis Lee, who is hitting a poor .210 with no power. Lee’s spot on the team could be in jeopardy once Rocco Baldelli returns in about a week.
Baldell’s return will also move Joey Gathright either to the bench or the minors. Gathright has 12 steals but is hitting just .193. He needs to make better contact to take advantage of his great speed.
Casey Fossum went on the DL with a groin injury, but should return on June 9th. Fossum has seen a sharp decline in his K/9 from 7.3 last year to 2.9 this season, while improving his G/F rate from .92 to 1.41. With an ERA of 5.46, this obviously is not the right direction to be following. Keep an eye on his first few starts to see if the K’s rise.
