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Friday November 17, 2006 10:26 pm

Stat’s All Folks: Barons, Derons, and C’MONs!

Baron DavisStat’s All Folks will be a week-to-week stock market look at the standard cumulative categories – points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, steals, and blocks.  I’ll be calling out the “bulls” and “bears” in each category, in order to help you assess your portfolio of players on your fantasy basketball team(s) and whether you should sell, hold, and/or diversify your assets.

Statistics are through November 9th – 15th.  

POINTS

BULLISH

Baron Davis, PG, Golden State Warriors
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 3 G; 26.0 PPG; 49.1 FG%; 69.2 FT%

Head coach Don Nelson’s up-tempo offense is like Mickey D’s to Davis – he’s lovin’ it!  Although, if you look at the new slimmer and trimmer Davis, he isn’t loving cheeseburgers and fries as much anymore.  While, he’s revealing that he is “the man” in the new offense – scoring points, passing off assists, and actually shooting decent percentages – let’s hope Davis doesn’t pull a Kirstie Alley and flaunt the weight loss.  Baron, just show off your game!

Joe Johnson, PG/SG, Atlanta Hawks
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 3 G; 30.3 PPG; 50.0 FG%; 82.4 FT%

Okay, tell me if you’ve heard this one before – Joe Johnson is no “ordinary Joe.”  That must have been the twelfth time this week, right?  Well, Johnson just can’t help making news and receiving the adulation of writers as he is just flat-out playing like an MVP right now.  J.J. is showing a healthy appetite for putting the ball in the basket and this week isn’t any sort of fluke as Johnson’s been scoring more than Ken Jennings in a round of Jeopardy from the start of the season.  It should be noted that J.J. ranked third overall last week in scoring with 28.7 points in three games.  Just call him “extraordinary Joe.”

Other Blue-Chippers for the Week

Michael Redd, SG, Milwaukee Bucks – 4 G; 35.0 PPG
Carmelo Anthony, SF, Denver Nuggets – 4 G; 33.5 PPG
Dwyane Wade, PG/SG, Miami Heat – 3 G; 31.7 PPG

Keep An Eye On

Carlos Boozer, PF/C, Utah Jazz – 3 G; 23.0 PPG
Tony Parker, PG, San Antonio Spurs – 3 G; 22.0 PPG

BEARISH

Jermaine O’Neal, PF/C, Indiana Pacers
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 3 G; 9.7 PPG; 28.9 FG%; 75.0 FT%

Eww.  If it wasn’t for O’Neal’s rebounding (10.3 per game) and shot-blocking (3.0 per game) last week, O’Neal would be absolutely filthy from a fantasy perspective.  That shooting percentage from the field is reminiscent of Shaquille O’Neal’s free-throw shooting and we all know how ugly those rockets off the rim are.  However, the good news is that O’Neal is at least getting shots (15 field goal attempts per game), but just isn’t converting.  And there are rumblings that O’Neal is unhappy with the team, which won’t do anything but hinder his post game in the box.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C, Cleveland Cavaliers
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 4 G; 6.3 PPG; 29.0 FG%; 87.5 FT%
%

Is Ilgauskas no longer needed as much on offense for the Cavaliers?  Of course he’s still needed, but more as a half-court threat and a decoy than anything else.  Unless Big Z suddenly is able run the floor like a giant balding gazelle, that is.  At one point, Ilgauskas was a vital part of the offense and even made a couple of All Star games, but that was pre-LeBron James.  Of course, now it’s all about LeBron and if you see him run, you should run too if you want to score points.  Unfortunately, I don’t think Big Z could run half as fast as the old LeBron from James’ sneaker commercials.

Ben Gordon, PG/SG, Chicago Bulls
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 3 G; 7.3 PPG; 22.2 FG%; 62.5 FT%
%

Gordon is a gunner and you have to like the tenacity he has because he’s a clutch shooter.  However, he’s also as inconsistent and all over the place as a Robin Williams stand-up comedy set.  So, while he’ll have his seven point games, as he basically averaged last week, he’s also capable of blowing up for 35 points on any given night.  However, if you’re playing in a head-to-head league, you’d rather have consistency and BG is not going to do that for you.  In a roto league, the consistency doesn’t matter as much, but it’s still maddening to look at a boxscore from day-to-day and track Gordon’s output.

Other Duds for the Week

Stephon Marbury, PG, New York Knicks – 4 G; 13.0 PPG
Chris Kaman, C, Los Angeles Clippers – 2 G; 3.5 PPG

Buyer Beware

Al Harrington, SF/PF/C, Indiana Pacers – 3 G; 24.7 PPG
Chucky Atkins, PG, Memphis Grizzlies – 3 G; 18.3 PPG

ASSISTS


BULLISH 

Deron Williams, PG, Utah Jazz
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 3 G; 12.0 APG; 2.3 TO

There was a reason Williams was drafted before New Orleans Hornets point guard, Chris Paul – Williams is good.  Very good.  Do I think he’s going to average a John Stockton-like dozen dimes for the season?  Of course not, Williams doesn’t wear his shorts short enough to see the top of his quadriceps.  But, fashion tastes aside, Williams is ready to breakout this season in a big way, especially if Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko can stay healthy.  If they don’t… okay, when they don’t, Williams is more than capable of picking up the scoring slack.  If he continues to play as he has this early in the season, he’ll have people asking, “Chris Paul who?”

Dwyane Wade, PG, Miami Heat
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 3 G; 8.3 APG; 4.0 TO

Last week, Wade had flashbacks to last season’s Finals and simply took over the whole Heat offense.  He averaged almost 32 points per game and almost seven boards, as well as the 8.3 dimes.  Unfortunately, unlike the Finals, the Heat lost two of the three games last week, but it wasn’t without Wade trying.  Wade is a smart player and can easily slice through the offense on the way to the basket.  But, in doing so, he can also recognize who’s open and has no qualms to dish it off.  Wade almost averaged seven assists last season and it looks like he’ll have to carry the offense and set up his teammates a little longer before Jason Williams comes back from injury, so expect the assists to continue to come.  Hopefully for the Heat, so will the W’s.  Of course, we fantasy players just like the assists numbers.

Other Blue-Chippers For The Week

Jason Kidd, PG, New Jersey Nets – 4 G; 12.5 APG
Baron Davis, PG, Golden State Warriors – 3 G; 10.0 APG
Andre Miller, PG, Denver Nuggets – 4 G; 9.3 APG
Keep An Eye On

Tyronn Lue, PG, Atlanta Hawks – 3 G; 6.3 APG
Jarret Jack, PG, Portland Trailblazers – 4 G; 5.8 APG

BEARISH

Rafer Alston, PG, Houston Rockets
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 3 G; 3.3 APG; 2.7 TO

“Skip To My Lou” AKA Alston, isn’t doing much skipping these days, at least from an assists point of view.  However, he’s still doing everything else – scoring, dropping bombs, and ripping the rock.  It’s almost like he’s a shooting guard.  So, what the heck is the shooting guard doing?  Ah, right, Tracy McGrady is passing to the tune of a little over seven assists a game in the last week.  This “Vice Versa” type of switch isn’t good for those that expected more assists from Alston AKA “Skip To My Fred Savage” this week.

Damon Stoudamire, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 3 G; 2.3 APG; 2.3 TO

Stoudamire was doing so bad as the starter that he was actually benched in favor of Chucky Atkins.  Not only is Stoudamire not able to find his teammates, but he couldn’t find the basket either as he only scored in single digits every game as a starter.  So, what happen?  Stoudamire comes off the bench the past two games and scores 16 and 19 points respectively.  So, he’s scoring at least, but still not getting the assists.  And neither is his replacement as Atkins is only averaging a little bit more dimes at a 2.7 clip.

Other Duds For The Week

Chucky Atkins, PG, Memphis Grizzlies – 3 G; 2.7 APG
Nate Robinson, PG, New York Knicks – 4 G; 1.0 APG

Buyer Beware

Andre Iguodala, SG/SF, Philadelphia 76ers – 2 G; 8.0 APG
Leandro Barbosa, PG, Phoenix Suns – 2 G; 8.0 APG

REBOUNDS

BULLISH 

Emeka Okafor, PF/C, Charlotte Bobcats
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 4 G; 13.8 RPG

For anyone wondering, yes, Okafor is back healthy and is he ever proving it!  Okafor even had a string of four games where he scored 20+ points and grabbed 15+ rebounds just recently.  Okafor needs to show that he can stay healthy, but other than that minor detail, he has superstar written all over him just as he did when he was at UConn boarding and blocking shots like a beast down in the box.

Chris Wilcox, PF/C, Seattle Supersonics
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 4 G; 13.0 RPG

Wilcox was told to focus on rebounding because the Sonics are weak at the center position with Robert Swift hurt; Mouhamed Sene possibly going down to the D-League to better his game, and Johan Petro not able to stay on the floor because of being foul prone.  Well, Wilcox did as he was asked averaged a bakers dozen of boards last week.  Wilcox has the size and talent to average double digits in boards, so don’t be surprised if he does.  Now only if the coaching staff asked him to be Shawn Kemp (the pre-portly version).  Imagine that?  A corn-rowed Rain Man.

Other Blue-Chippers For The Week

Chris Bosh, PF/C, Toronto Raptors – 3 G; 15.3 RPG
Dwight Howard, PF/C, Orlando Magic – 4 G; 14.8 RPG
Tim Duncan, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs – 3 G; 14.7 RPG

Keep An Eye On

Carlos Boozer, PF/C, Utah Jazz – 3 G; 13.0 RPG
Shareef Abdur-Rahim, SF/PF, Sacramento Kings – 2 G; 10.0 RPG
Shelden Williams, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks – 3 G; 9.7 RPG
Andris Biedrins, PF/C, Golden State Warriors – 3 G; 8.7 RPG

BEARISH

Chris Kaman, C, Los Angeles Clippers
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 2 G; 4.5 RPG

What happened?  Was it the money from new contract he signed?  Kaman averaged 9.6 boards last season and he hasn’t even gotten double digit boards in a game yet!  Those that drafted Kaman as their number one center as surely calling him, “Chris C’MON!” 

Other Duds For The Week

Andrei Kirilenko, SF/PF, Utah Jazz – 2 G; 3.0 RPG
Mark Blount, PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves – 2 G; 4.0 RPG
Steven Hunter, PF/C, Philadelphia 76ers – 2 G; 2.0 RPG

Buyer Beware

Manu Ginobili, SG, San Antonio Spurs – 3 G; 7.7 RPG
Mike Miller, SG/SF, Memphis Grizzlies – 3 G; 9.7 RPG

THREE POINTERS

BULLISH

Leandro Barbosa, PG, Phoenix Suns
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 2 G; 4.0 3PTM

What’s not to like about Barbosa?  He starts alongside Steve Nash, is one of the quicker players in the league, as well as an explosive scorer, and can flat out shoot from beyond the arch.  While he can create his own shot, why not just sit back and let Nash break down the defense and find you in the corner or at the top of the key?  Well, Barbosa is being found with obvious regularity, sort of like him finding the bottom of the net and draining moneyballs galore.

Peja Stojackovic, SG/SF, New Orleans Hornets
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 5 G; 3.2 3PTM

Stojackovic has already hit five triples in a game twice this season, including his 42-point performance recently versus the Charlotte Bobcats.  Peja was paid a lot of money during the offseason for one reason and that was to shoot the lights out and while he’s not quite there, the lights are starting to dim.  Naturally, it helps to play alongside Chris Paul who can break down a defense as precisely as a surgeon.  It’s very possible for Stojakovic to return to his Sacramento Kings form.

Other Blue-Chippers For The Week

Vince Carter, SG/SF, New Jersey Nets – 4 G; 3.8 3PTM
Kevin Martin, SG, Sacramento Kings – 2 G; 3.5 3PTM
J.R. Smith, SG, Denver Nuggets – 4 G; 3.3 3PTM

Keep An Eye On

Antoine Walker, SF/PF, Miami Heat – 3 G; 2.7 3PTM
Damon Jones, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers – 4 G; 2.5 3PTM
Mickael Pietrus, SG/SF, Golden State Warriors – 3 G; 2.3 3PTM

BEARISH

Earl Watson, PG, Seattle Supersonics
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 4 G; 0.3 3PTM

Last week, Watson got about 15 minutes per contest, shot 1-for-10 from three point range, shooting 25.0% from the floor overall, and it nowhere near his 1.6 3PTM average last season with the Denver Nuggets and Sonics.  It doesn’t help that Luke Ridnour is showing himself to be a scorer on top of a very good assists man.  So, it’s elementary, Watson lands here.  However, if the rumors of Watson landing in Cleveland at some point this season are true, his fantasy value will get a huge bump like someone hit him in the head..

Kobe Bryant, SG, Los Angeles Lakers
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 2 G; 1.0 3PTM

This is the second consecutive week that I’m putting Bryant here in the bearish category.  Last season, KB24 averaged 2.3 3PTM and is not reaching that level thus far this season, but the season is still young and Kobe is still coming back from leg surgery.  It’s only a matter of time before the old Bryant comes back, along with the three-pointers.  However, until that time, he’s hanging with the bears.

Buyer Beware

Josh Smith, SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks – 3 G; 2.7 3PTM
Danny Granger, SF/PF, Indiana Pacers – 3 G; 2.3 3PTM

STEALS

BULLISH

Quinton Ross, SF, Los Angeles Clippers
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 2 G; 2.5 SPG

Ross is an outstanding defender, not just getting into passing lanes to steal the ball, but also as an on-the-ball defender.  It’s for this reason that Ross has kicked Corey Maggette, who is much better offensively, to the Clippers bench. 

Jason Kidd, PG, New Jersey Nets
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 4 G; 2.5 SPG

Kidd is the perfect example of the ups and downs of the stock market.  Last week he was bearish in assists (this week at 12.5, he was tops in the league) and he’s right up there in the steals category this week, where he was on the bearish side as well last week.  Kidd is too good to not stabilize and hopefully with Marcus Williams giving Kidd some rest, Kidd won’t breakdown too quickly.  Consider Williams the addendum that helps Kidd remain a blue-chip stock.

LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 4 G; 2.5 SPG

James gets so much publicity for his offensive repertoire that people forget that he has some very good defensive instincts as well.  Remember the 2.2 steals per game he averaged during his second season?  It looks like he might be going the Michael Jordan path, which is to be an offensive juggernaut at first and then a defensive stopper.  James still has some work to do to get to Jordan’s level as a player that can dominate on both sides of the floor, but it’s hard to put anything past King James.  Witness, people.  Witness.

Other Blue-Chippers For The Week

Baron Davis, PG, Golden State Warriors – 3 G; 3.3 SPG
Deron Williams, PG, Utah Jazz – 3 G; 2.7 SPG
Andre Miller, PG, Denver Nuggets – 4 G; 2.5 SPG

Keep An Eye On

Rajon Rondo, PG/SG, Boston Celtics – 4 G; 2.0 SPG
Luke Walton, SF, Los Angeles Lakers – 2 G; 1.5 SPG

BEARISH

Jason Richardson, SG, Golden State Warriors
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 3 G; 0.5 SPG

Richardson is just in a funk.  Offensively, he’s not doing as well as last season and it doesn’t help that he’s losing time to Monta Ellis.  Defensively, Richardson is only averaging 0.4 steals per game for the season after ripping the rock 1.3 times per game last season.  J-Rich is probably still shaking off the effects of knee surgery over the summer.

Luke Ridnour, PG, Seattle Supersonics
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 4 G; 0.3 SPG

I guess doing all that scoring last week to the tune of 19.3 points per game had Ridnour more focused on offense than defense.  Last season, he averaged 1.6 steals per contest, so getting about 20% of that this past week is probably an anomaly… sort of like his close to 20 point average last week.  The scoring is nice, but it’s not as valuable a commodity as good old robbery of the basketball.

Buyer Beware

Kenny Thomas, PF, Sacramento Kings – 2 G; 2.5 SPG
Nazr Mohammed, C, San Antonio Spurs – 3 G; 1.7 SPG

BLOCKS

BULLISH

Darko Milicic, PF/C, Orlando Magic
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 4 G; 2.3 BPG

Milicic only averaged about 19 minutes of burn per game last week, but he was still able to average over two rejections in limited minutes.  Imagine the crazy amount of blocks that Milicic would average if he played starter minutes!  He’d make people forget that he was drafted before Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Bosh the way people forget that Darko, while with the Detroit Pistons, was technically the first one from the 2002 draft class to win a championship ring.

Other Blue-Chippers For The Week

Emeka Okafor, PF/C, Charlotte Bobcats – 4 G; 4.5 BPG
Andrei Kirilenko, SF/PF, Utah Jazz – 2 G; 3.0 BPG
Kevin Garnett, SF/PF, Minnesota Timberwolves – 2 G; 3.0 BPG
Samuel Dalembert, C, Philadelphia 76ers – 2 G; 3.0 BPG

Keep An Eye On

Kendrick Perkins, PF/C, Boston Celtics – 4 G; 2.5 BPG
LaMarcus Aldridge, SF/PF, Portland Trailblazers – 3 G; 1.0 BPG

BEARISH

Shawn Marion, SF/PF, Phoenix Suns
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 2 G; 0.5 BPG

There is no questioning the fantasy studliness of Marion, but I’m going to throw some doubt on the table.  For his career, the Matrix averages 1.3 blocks per game, got to stuff 1.7 basketballs into the stands or a shooter’s face last season.  But, with Amare Stoudemire’s recent strong showings, Marion has regressed a bit, not only in blocking the ball, but also boarding.  Shawn will still get his, but maybe it’ll be less than what he did with an injured Amare doing most of his damage on chairs by the bench.

Andrei Kirilenko, SF/PF, Utah Jazz
Last Week’s Numbers of Note: 2 G; 3.0 BPG

Why is Kirilenko in both the bull and bear sections?  Well, the block numbers are great, but he’s injured again after spraining his ankle recently and it’s undetermined as to when he’ll get back on the floor, leaving his fantasy owners dejected and rejected themselves.  For that, AK47 lands here as a bear.

Buyer Beware

Paul Milsap, SF/PF, Utah Jazz – 3 G; 2.3 BPG
Dorell Wright, SG/SF, Miami Heat – 3 G; 1.7 BPG

Umm… stat’s all folks!

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