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Wednesday October 17, 2007 11:13 am

DroppingDimes.com 2007-08 Experts Draft Recap




Posted by Matt Satten Categories: Editorial, H2H, Site Features,

Andray Blatche

Late last week, the esteemed fantasy basketball blog DroppingDimes.com held our experts league live draft featuring 14 experts from the fantasy basketball industry. We’re talking every member of the DD crew, Doctor A from Rotoworld, Kelly Dwyer from TrueHoop and James Quintong from SI.com among a slew of talented others. As you might have heard already, the banter throughout the draft was non-stop and just phenomenal—kind of like Gilbert’s swag. While it’s unfortunate that the draft transcript is unavailable (damn you Yahoo draft room applet!), it’s abundantly clear that each participant had much to offer. Luckily everyone was kind enough to answer the following questions about the draft, providing a wealth of insight – and a quick peak into these experts’ convoluted minds. Enjoy.

To see the DD.com Experts Draft Results, click here.

Draft Review Questions:

1. What was your strategy coming into this draft? Did you execute it properly? If not, where did you go wrong?
2. Who had the best draft? Who had the worst draft? Why?
3. What were the best and worst picks of the first three rounds? The middle six rounds? The final three rounds? Why?
4. If you could redo one pick in your draft, which one would it be and why?
5. Grade your draft (A-F). What place will your team finish? Who will win the league and why?
6. Additional comments (optional)?

NOTE: Questions above will be placed after every third expert’s review to make following the answers easier.

Dennis Velasco, DroppingDimes.com

1. Coming into the draft, my strategy was, “Please don’t screw this up.” Seriously, have you looked at the roster of experts that are in this league?!? I sincerely admire all of these experts’ work, and that includes those of us at this little fantasy basketball blog we call Dropping Dimes. Don’t worry, I’m kissing butt now, but once the season starts, everyone will be calling me “The Glove of Fantasy Basketball.”

In any case, I came in thinking I need to fill in two starting center spots as I always do in these types of league. Add the fact that there are 14 teams and I was going to go big early. If I could get a PF/C, that’s even better, as to allow me to have some flexibility down the line. In some other expert drafts I’ve done, I’ve been ignoring point guards early for some reason UNLESS I could nab Gilbert “Agent Zero” Arenas or Steve Nash, so I came in thinking the trend would probably continue. And in the first seven rounds, my thought was to just get the best talent available and try not to take any injury risks.

Well, I landed the top pick, so it was easy for me to take Kobe Bryant, who gives you points, boards, dimes, steals, treys, and if you look at the three-year trend, his shooting percentages have gone up each time. It was a no-brainer to me… although, my heart was thinking of my man-crush, Shawn Marion. In the second round, I landed Cleveland’s favorite NBA player, Carlos Boozer, a pick that gave me that PF/C flexibility I was looking for. Sweet! And, you can ask any of the DD team, I’ve thought Brandon Roy was something special coming out of college and always liked his game, so despite the injury concern, I took him third. I went point guard in the fourth because the field was getting thinner than a Hollywood starlet. In the fifth, I got my second center in Sam Dalembert. So, I’m done with big men for now unless something came up later that would allow me to move Booze into the four spot. In the sixth round I was praying that every strip club in the nation suddenly had “Sloth from The Goonies”-ugly chicks so that guys, namely Stephen Jackson, wouldn’t frequent them anymore and stay out of trouble. My lucky number seven pick, I went with Charlie Bell. Why? Probably nostalgia as he helped me win this very league last year. Plus I forgot that Bobby Simmons is back, even though I took him with my last pick in an experts mock I did with Mock Draft Central. I’m a dummy.

2. I think Emry from SLAM had the best draft. I really liked the Chris Wilcox/Nene combo for centers in the sixth and seventh rounds. Plus, he was luckier than a guy waking up next to Scarlett Johannson when Marion fell to him all the way down at the eighth overall pick. Unbelievable.

The worst? Hey, I’m the one that got everyone into the league and am commissioner, so I’ll play it like David Stern and be political about it. Every team has something good about them, the Donaghy scandal is an individual incident, sure the Phoenix Suns got screwed, but the San Antonio Spurs were gonna win anyway, and I’d like to expand this league across the Atlantic and down into our South American neighbors.

3. Best pick in the first three rounds: Tracy McGrady (40th overall) by Ryan from Hoops Addict. I totally forgot about T-Mac, but it wouldn’t have mattered anyway as Ryan was basically drafting on the other side of the round and I had to go with Roy, a personal favorite player of mine. But, if I was Ryan, I would have been yelling like Mel Gibson in “Braveheart,” but instead of “freedom,” I would have been yelling, “Teeeeeeeeeeeeeee Maaaaaaaaaaaaaac!!!”

Worst pick in the first three rounds: Well, I wouldn’t say this is a “bad” pick, but if we have to choose a pick, it would probably be Dr. A from Rotoworld’s Aldridge pick. Again, it’s not bad because it can totally work out for him in the end and I can understand why he did, especially since it was going to be a while before he picked again in the fourth round. However, this was definitely a surprise pick that made the room go “Whoa.”

Best pick in the middle six rounds: Monta Ellis in the eighth round by Nels was a great pick without question. Not really sure how he fell that far. The only thing I can think of is that people were worried about his head hitting Brandan Wright’s knee in practice recently. Or maybe it’s Marco Belinelli. Either way, this will be a value pick for sure.

Worst pick in the middle six rounds: I’ll eat crow and go with my pick of Charlie Bell in the seventh round. Not because I think it’s bad because I really do have faith in Bell despite Michael Redd being healthy now, as well as Bobby Simmons. I think Bell has proven himself to the Bucks, which is why they wouldn’t let him go anywhere this offseason and signed him to an extension. However, the flaw with this pick was that I overvalued Bell and didn’t read the room correctly. I probably could have gotten Bell much later, if not off waivers with this particular group of managers.

And like I always say, “It’s not who you choose, but where you choose them.”

Best pick in the final three rounds: Well, nearly everyone in the room said, “Oh maaaaan,” when Walter Hermann was chosen by Brandon from our little blog (and The Fantasy Lounge). Well, there were some curse words, actually.

4. I would probably have done the Bell pick over again for the reasons I just mentioned above. I probably should have gone with T.J. Ford who was taken three picks later to solidify my dimes and rock rips. Oh well, c’est la vie.

5. I would give myself a solid B. And, honestly, I’m a really cocky player and that will come out as the season goes on. Defending champ, suckas! As Arenas is fond of saying, “My swag is phenomenal.”

6. Seriously, the fantasy basketball mojo is ridiculous in me!!!

I want to take the time to thank everyone in the league for coming into the league and giving Dropping Dimes, a small blog on the come-up, some serious street-cred. In all honesty, I don’t care if I win, or if Ron & Alvin, Sarge, Matt or Brandon wins. I just want the home team to take the title and keep the trophy in-house. Word.

Also, the banter during the draft was crazy. From the beginning to the end, non-stop banter for an hour and a half. I’ve never had that in any draft I’ve ever been in. The draft was the most fun I’ve ever had in picking players to destroy the competition. Thanks for the laughs, fellas. Get ready to cry when the season starts.

Don’t worry… I have tissues for all of you.

Scott Sargent, DroppingDimes.com

1. I often try to not really have a strategy in terms of targeted positions and such as that just leads to reaching and misallocation of players. Instead, I aim to take the least risk in the first round and, ensure a center within the first three picks and then just go with the best player available from there.

I think I did a pretty good job of adhering to the above as I was able to land Kevin Garnett second overall, Marcus Camby in the third and players I felt were the best overall from there out – taking a few fliers at the end. I really do not think I went “wrong” anywhere, but would definitely take a pick or two back if I could.

2. I like the team that Ron Chow and Alvin Lai put together. Never hurts to get your bigs out of the way early. Andrew Bogut may wind up being the best third center in the league this year. If I had to pick a non-Dropping Dimes team, I’d go with Quintong’s team. While Bynum will hurt as a second center, James is smart enough to add to this weakness throughout the season. In H2H, having Arenas, Allen and Jamison will provide him with plenty of scoring and threes. And I’m a big Devin Harris fan this season; it won’t be long before he’s a mainstay in JQ’s lineup.

Worst draft on paper may have to go to Nels. Loading up on small forwards and having inexperience down low may come back to haunt him. But I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt as he’s way better at this stuff than I am – Horford and Collison could wind up in the top 50 for all I know. One thing’s for sure, he’s winning free throw shooting every week with Ellis being his worst charity contributor at a shocking 76 percent.

3. Shawn Marion falling to eighth overall was ridiculous. Had I know that were to happen I would’ve lobbied to trade down – even though that’s not an option. I almost took him second, so getting him eighth was a steal. Tracy McGrady falling to the end of the third (to Ryan from HoopsAddict) was pretty shocking as well. And while I wouldn’t consider it “bad,” Yao Ming going fifth overall (ahead of Wade, Arenas and Marion) definitely surprised me.

Ron Artest going at the end of the fifth will pay dividends for Brandon. It just hurts that he also has Rashard Lewis and Caron Butler filling the position. I also loved nabbing Ginobili with the 73rd pick overall. Worst pick may wind up being Leandro Barbosa in the fourth. I’m not sure he repeats last year’s production. David Lee in the fifth is a bit early as well given that he’s going to be sharing time and there were several other bigs still on the board at the time.

Final three rounds were mostly fliers, but several could pan out. Nabbing Przybilla at the end of the 12th may wind up being huge for me given Camby’s injury concerns. Also, Brandon swiping Herrmann in the 11th definitely caused a few waves in the draft chat, as did Turkoglu going to Neil. Rashad McCants (chosen by myself) likely doesn’t even deserve to be drafted in a 14-team league – so I’ll give myself that award.

4. I really thought that Ray Felton would fall back to me in the fifth, but forgot that Dennis is pretty much in love with the guy this year. In hindsight, I would’ve taken Felton in the fourth and then if ‘Sheed fell to the fifth, taken him there or just went with whatever was dealt my way. Also, taking McCants with all of the other talent still on board in the 11th will likely prove to be a bonehead move.

5. Well, last year I thought I did well and finished in the bottom half – so I’m going to go with a C+ for now. Passing, but nothing exceptional. If Camby and Baron Davis stay healthy, it may increase, but for now I’ll have to keep my expectations at bay.

6. I hope that 14 teams can somehow become the new standard as 12 teams and only three bench spots simply doesn’t allow for a deep enough draft given the amount of preparing that we all do. Even with 13 rounds of drafting, it looks like there are still plenty of prospects on the wire and with weekly changes, it’s definitely going to be a great season.

Matt Satten, DroppingDimes.com

1. A 14-team league featuring two starting centers means that this scarce position is even more valuable now. It was essential to secure shot-blocking big men, but not at the expense of the best available player in the first few rounds. After landing the centers and other bigs, gamble on some sleepers in the mid-rounds and grab one or two three-point shooters late. Don’t worry about what the other teams are doing.

I was indeed able to execute the strategy by landing Jermaine O’Neal and Andris Biedrins to anchor my middle, nabbing some nice upside players in Rudy Gay and Luis Scola, and adding cheap threes late with Marco Belinelli, Jason Kapono and Rafer Alston.

2. The Dime Magazine duo of Jed Berger and Austin Burton had a very strong draft, especially give their position at the end of the first round. It’s difficult to fill needs and make two strong picks each time, but they managed to do it brilliantly with selections like Andrea Bargnani and Darko Milicic on the fifth and sixth round swing.
The worst draft was a close call between a couple of teams and that’s because they didn’t value the scarcity of centers in this monstrous league (14 teams, 13 players). This is why it’s very important to not just know but understand your league rules and parameters heading into the draft. That being said, while I wasn’t a fan of Ryan’s team being filled with at least eight injury-prone players, I’m deeming Neil’s draft the worst since he went small with his first five picks and his starting (and only) centers are Boris Diaw and Channing Frye – both backups last year and non-traditional centers in that they don’t block shots or rebound very well. Plus, both have dealt with injuries before.

3. The best pick of the first few rounds was Al Jefferson at 20th overall. Not only does he complement Amare by filling the second center slot already, but he should finish better than his draft position. The worst choice is a tough call since there isn’t any that stand out in the first three rounds, but considering Brandon Roy’s heel is still a problem and surgery may be needed, it wasn’t the strongest pick at the top of Round 3.

In the middle rounds, I’m going to throw Jed and Darko Milicic some more love at the 71st overall pick. With the dearth of shot-blocking centers available, this was a great call at the time. There are quite a few picks I disagree with given the time of the selection but I cannot fathom why Ben Wallace and Shaq went when they did. While I agree the center spot is important, these two former All-Stars have aged rapidly the past two years and will kill you in certain categories – when they’re healthy enough to play, another factor to consider. Also, I think Elton Brand has no shot of playing this year, especially in the fantasy regular season, and the wasted roster spot is really going to limit Dennis’ depth.

For the final few rounds, I’ll focus on one position on one team. The Clippers PG job is up for grabs between Sam Cassell and Brevin Knight – two aging players with a tendency to break down. The difference between the two is that Cassell is a scorer and a winner while Knight is a distributor and loser. The Clip Joint needs a proven winner to lead this squad and score in the clutch, not someone with 9 career playoff games in over a decade of playing and just one season (rookie year) with more than 69 games played. Cassell is the much better pick and he went 15 picks after Knight.

This one is easy. I was forced away from my computer and had Morris Peterson selected automatically for me. While it’s not terrible, I would have rather landed an upside player like Tyrus Thomas or a second PG like Mike Conley or Acie Law IV.

5. A-. I had a couple of regrettable picks late, but they can be remedied with the waiver wire or a trade. It’s less important too since this isn’t a daily transaction league where your bench players play nearly as much as your starters. Other than that, I executed my strategy well and feel like my core guys can carry me deep into the playoffs.

That being said, Dennis should win this league because I criticized three of his selections in this review (Roy, Knight and Brand) providing the proper motivation to prove me wrong. On the other hand, I want to prove I was correct with the strategy I used and criticism I just penned, so I’m going to have to man up to take this baby myself. 

—————
1. What was your strategy coming into this draft? Did you execute it properly? If not, where did you go wrong?
2. Who had the best draft? Who had the worst draft? Why?
3. What were the best and worst picks of the first three rounds? The middle six rounds? The final three rounds? Why?
4. If you could redo one pick in your draft, which one would it be and why?
5. Grade your draft (A-F). What place will your team finish? Who will win the league and why?
6. Additional comments (optional)?
—————

Steve “Doctor A” Alexander, Rotoworld.com

1. My strategy was to stick with my well planned out list and to draft the best player according to my rankings and based on positions I needed. I absolutely did not execute it, as it was shot down with the No. 4 pick in the draft. All my data said Shawn Marion – and while I stick with my data and think that from a numbers standpoint, Marion was probably the right call. I just couldn’t let LeBron float past me. LeBron’s future has no doubts, while Marion’s attitude and drop in production last year made me a little nervous. Once I blew off the numbers to take LeBron, I threw the cheat sheet away and went with my head, gut and heart – thus going with Dwight Howard and LaMarcus Aldridge with my next two picks. That’s funny to me because I have spent most of the summer ripping Howard in leagues that count FT% and TOs, which this one does.
Maybe it was the blurb I posted on Rotoworld earlier in the day about the vast improvements Howard has made in both categories. And the fact we have to start two centers. Either way, I feel pretty good about the LeBron-Howard-Aldridge start. We’ll see.
Also, people were picking so fast in this draft it was hard to keep up with the cheat sheets anyway. This thing was moving lightning fast with a 1:30 time limit, although most people seemed to be making their picks within 20 seconds.
2. I like Emry from SLAM’s draft. There’s a lot of value there and I love the Marion-Deron Williams-Melo start.
3. Not sure about the worst draft. It can be argued that it was me by “reaching” for LeBron, Dwight and Aldridge.
4. I would probably not take Jason Terry with my fifth pick again. Tony Parker or Andre Miller were probably safer point guard picks. I also wanted Rajon Rondo in the sixth, but got pimped. I took Chris Kaman instead, so at least I’ve got some depth and options at center with Howard-Aldridge-Kaman.
5. I would give my draft a B. I think we all have a shot at winning and it comes down to how the young guys perform. If Terry and Derek Fisher do well as point guards and Howard and Aldridge blow up as planned, I love my team. We’ll see.

Kelly Dwyer, TrueHoop.com

1. You can’t really plan a “strategy” for something you’ve never done before, so I basically tried to rely on my own instincts about how certain players will perform this year, and do my best with the “best player available vs. draft for need” issue. I think I failed on both counts, but that’s how I roll.

And, honestly, I’m like that guy who has some horrible stench coming off of him that nobody but him can locate. I’m oblivious as to how egregiously bad my team might be at this point, and I’ll be able to figure out just where I went wrong next April. The head-to-head format, which I’ve never taken part in, might be the killer.

2. The Boston Celtics, in 1956. The Portland Trail Blazers, in 1984. What, people have made that joke before?

Ron and Al look pretty good, as does Satten. I don’t remember who drafted the soon to-be 27-year old Francisco Garcia, who averaged 13 and 6 per 40 minutes last year, and will be lucky to top out at 25 minutes per game this year even as a starter. I also drafted Alonzo Mourning because I think my team could come to life at some point and have to play real teams.

3. I honestly think LeBron is going to have the best fantasy year of anyone this year, so whoever nabbed him did it right. Someone took LaMarcus Aldridge way too high, he’ll get all the minutes he can handle – but then again, he’ll get all the minutes he can handle, and he can’t handle all the minutes he can handle.

Whoever got Walter Hermann ticked me off. I passed on him twice to add PG depth and I’ll rue it all year. He’s a chucker, but he’ll board and get treys and points.

4. I’m still cool with taking Yao over Marion, mainly because I didn’t have to scramble in the late rounds to add a center who could walk and chew gum at the same time. I took rightful crap for selecting Zo, but outside of Hermann (with David West gone), I don’t know who else I would have taken – the guy gets better stats at center in 20 mpg game than most 30-minute centers.

What I said on draft night remains true – if it were 2004, I’d win the league in a landslide, and the name recognition of my players alone will win me attendance records. Bow down. (Actually, I don’t think I’m allowed to use the phrase “Bow down.” SLAM might sue me, and then Dime might copy SLAM and sue me too).

5. B for “brilliant.” Topper most of the poppermost, and the Spurs, probably.

6. Bird lives.

Neil Tardy, ESPN.com

1. In a H2H league, about the only thing I do differently from roto is care not a whit about turnovers. I don’t think you can afford to punt a category in roto. But in H2H, it doesn’t matter what you’re good at, just that you’re solid at 5-6 categories. Eddy Curry
notwithstanding, the players who made the most turnovers last year put up great numbers in several categories. So my goal was to acquire players who are, for lack of a better term, across-the-board talents. I feel that the majority of the players on my roster fit
that description.

2. From a very, very quick scan of the rosters, I like SI.com (Quintong) and Nels’ rosters. Nels might have been better served taking that team in ‘08, but Paul, Iggy, Deng and Durant is a nice start. Quintong has some injury risks (Okafor), but Agent Zero (Arenas), Ray Allen and Jamison are solid. He apparently is the only guy in this league who likes Andrew Bynum more than I do. (For the record, I like Bynum at least half as much as Kobe hates him.) And he really annoyed me by taking Francisco Garcia in the 12th.

3. Rounds 1-3: You have to say that Marion and Nash slid absurdly low in the first (No. 8 and 10), but of the many bold picks, I like Iguodala at No. 14. I’d have selected him for my second-rounder. Rounds 4-9: Not that there’s anything wrong with Kevin Martin, but if I had it to do over, I’d have gone for David West in Round 4 (51st overall). He’ll shoot well, board and I think be near a steal and a block a game. Rounds 10-12: Gotta be Marco Belinelli of DroppingDimes.com’s Satan – err, Satten – three picks into the 11th. He’ll be starting over Monta Ellis.

4. Obviously I flaked in the fifth round, suppressing all memory of Zach Randolph’s arrival in New York and choosing David Lee based on his delicious shooting and rebounding numbers from a year ago. This isn’t to defend the pick, but I do think Lee will still get enough minutes to carve out a very respectable number of boards this year. And the way my team is composed, I’ll need that. But that may have been the worst pick of the draft.

5. B to B-. My team should get a ton of steals and a decent amount of points and 3PM while maintaining good percentages. Boards and blocks could be my Achilles heel, however. (Clean that glass, David Lee, clean it like the wind.) I also consider myself savvy to obsessive when it comes to monitoring the free agent rolls, so I expect I’ll improve my team during the season. With that, I think I can finish in the top four, and challenge for the championship if things go right. But I keep looking at SI’s roster, and despite my distaste for Shane Battier, I’m impressed. Very impressed.

6. Apparently the prospect of competing in a 14-team league made everyone hoard centers – no better example than LaMarcus Aldridge going to Doc in the third round. That move is part of a larger point – people weren’t afraid to put themselves out there. And it’s a good approach. If you put the work into your draft preparations, you should have faith in your convictions, even if it means passing on a consensus top five pick or reaching at any point in the draft. Take it from an expert – never take experts’ words as gospel.

—————
1. What was your strategy coming into this draft? Did you execute it properly? If not, where did you go wrong?
2. Who had the best draft? Who had the worst draft? Why?
3. What were the best and worst picks of the first three rounds? The middle six rounds? The final three rounds? Why?
4. If you could redo one pick in your draft, which one would it be and why?
5. Grade your draft (A-F). What place will your team finish? Who will win the league and why?
6. Additional comments (optional)?
—————

James Quintong, SI.com

1. I’m not sure I had any real set plan heading into this draft, other trying to fill at least starting positions with strong players, often eligible at multiple places. With 14 teams, it was going to be tough sledding after say the primary starters were filled. However, I knew I wanted a lot of scoring early and then build up the middle not long after that since that’s where it seemed the second- and third-tier frontcourt men were going (that’s what the two centers will do to strategy). I guess I stuck to my guns, although there were more than a few instances where my targets were gone not too long before my turn came up.

2. As for the best drafts, it looked like some of the deeper teams came later in the draft. I really liked Ron & Al beefing up the middle early and still finding solid backcourt help in the middle rounds. And even though he had the swing at 14 and 15, Jed at Dime Magazine also knew how to clean up despite the long waits between the double picks, although his late-round picks are good calculated gamble.

The worst draft is a tougher one. Emry of Slam started really strong, but after Round 4, the picks get a little iffy. For what it’s worth, there weren’t too many times that I thought he either stole a pick ahead of me or took someone I was considering in the pick before mine. Not sure if that says something about his draft plan or mine.

3. Best early picks: Shawn Marion at 8, Steve Nash at 10; Al Jefferson in the middle of round two; Tracy McGrady near the end of Round 3.

Worst early picks: Yao Ming is a calculated gamble at 5, but it could pay off; Sargent gambling on Marcus Camby and Baron Davis in back-to-back picks. Hope he drafted a doctor with it.

Best middle picks: Redd and Durant to open the fourth round, Shaq near the start of Round 6 (the head-to-head format probably helps his value), Boris Diaw in Round 7, Nenad Krstic in Round 8, and both rookie point guards Mike Conley Jr. and Acie Law IV going at the top of the ninth.

Worst middle picks: David Lee in the fifth, but only because he went before Zach Randolph; I’ll throw in my own Corey Brewer pick in the eighth and the speculative Elton Brand pick not long after that.

Best late picks: Lots of good sleepers like Travis Outlaw in the 10th and Walter Herrmann in the 11th.

Worst late picks: Tough to really mark some of these late ones as really bad since they’d likely be the first ones dropped in free agency, but waiting for Mike Dunleavy to break through in the 10th and rolling the dice on Luke Ridnour in the 12th (although that could turn into a bargain as well).

4. Randy Foye in the sixth round may have been more of a stretch than I would’ve preferred, especially when I was looking for help in assists. It was probably too early there for one of the rookie point guards, but T.J. Ford and Rajon Rondo didn’t go too long after my Foye pick.

5. I think I had a pretty scattershot draft, so I’ll be honest and give myself a B-. Probably could’ve gone Marion over Arenas to start with, and a lot of my potential targets in the middle rounds were going to teams at either end of the turn.

I don’t think I’ll be losing the title on the last day of the season again, like it happened last season. But I can hope to sneak my way into the playoffs if things fall the right way. However, I think Ron and Al had a strong draft that could take them a long way this season.

6. With 14 teams, it becomes a challenge to unearth more of those late-round gems. But unfortunately, they seem to be few and far between. Still it makes for a good challenge at the draft and definitely in free agency, where the pickings become slim. I somehow got to the finals last season by making very few moves and relying on my core. I may be swimming in the waiver-wire waters more this season.

Emry Downinghall, Slam Magazine

1. My strategy coming into the draft was to try to achieve a balanced team. I wanted to be solid across the board and pick up guys I was confident would stay on the court, producing for my squad. I feel I did a pretty good job of executing. My strategy was thrown off a bit, picking 8th, when Shawn Marion fell to me. I didn’t see that coming. I was planning on picking up a center in the first round and then a point guard in the second. I achieved that with Deron Williams, but had to take The Matrix when he was still sitting there in the first. Consequently, I am lacking at the five spot.

This being an expert league, I really feel like the GMs did a good job across the board. Personally, I like Satten’s roster. He has a very solid front line with Dirk, J. O’Neal and D. West. He also snatched a number of guys up that I was all set to select, most notably Rudy Gay in the 7th round and Luis Scola in the 9th. So during the draft I was cursing his name, but now that the smoke has cleared, I have a calming respect for the man.
2. The worst draft is a lot tougher. I didn’t agree with Neil’s Dwyane Wade pick at No. 6 because Wade is going to miss camp and then a couple of weeks to start the season. Then again, how can you go wrong with a fantasy beast like Wade? He might know something we don’t. I also thought David Lee was a stretch in the 5th round since he won’t be starting for the Knicks. I love Lee, but what made that pick super ironic was that Zach Randolph was still on the board. With that said he snatched Channing Frye in the 9th and Travis Outlaw in the 10th, both of which I thought were excellent picks.

3. I think my selection of Shawn Marion with the 8th pick of the first round was the biggest no-brainer of the draft. It’s a reach to call it the best pick because, at that point, who wouldn’t have selected The Matrix? I had Marion ranked in my top three going in, and I understand he has been grumbling and the trade rumors have hurt his stock a bit, but the fact is, the man fills up the stat sheet. Worst Pick: Wade with the 6th pick of the draft was too much of a reach for me. Assuming he is going to miss all of November, that puts him at a maximum of 67 games for the season. I just don’t want any injury risk associated with a first-round selection, even if that means passing on a player of Wade’s caliber.

In the middle six rounds, the best pick was Richard Jefferson with the 10th pick in the 6th round. On the court I am not a big RJ fan, but I think he is primed for a big fantasy year. He is healthy for the first time in quite awhile. He plays with arguably the best point guard in the world, which means easy buckets and better rhythm. Also, his biggest competition for touches, Vince Carter, is no longer playing for an extension, meaning he will be coming up lame quite a bit this season, paving the road for RJ to break out. The worst pick was Randy Foye with the 8th pick in the 6th round. I was constantly dropping and adding Foye all last season waiting for him to break through. It never happened. While he is certainly a major part of the youth movement in Minnesota, I see Bassy cutting into his tick and hurting his stock this year.

There is no better feeling in a fantasy draft then snatching a player and having the draft board light up with pissed off owners who wished they had made that move. The Walter Herrmann selection in the 11th round was that pick. With Sean May out for the year, this opens the door for Herrmann to seriously contend for a starting job and make a big impact in Charlotte. A great value this late in the draft. As for the worst pick, in these late rounds owners are either drafting for need or looking to snag a sleeper. So when Charlie Villanueva was taken in the 10th round I thought it was a solid pick, but that selection was followed up by Yi Jianlian. Eazy Yi and Charlie on the same fantasy team basically cancel each other out. They will be fighting for minutes on the Bucks and on the fantasy roster.

4. If I could redo one of my selections I would give Chris Wilcox the old heave-ho. Wilcox is a solid player but he isn’t a 6th-round talent. It was my intention to take Andrew Bogut but he was selected with the pick right before I was supposed to draft. This sent me into a scramble, and I was in desperate need of a big. I ended up taking Wilcox as the draft clock was ticking. Needless to say, I feel like my team is lacking in the frontcourt and I actually feel I got a better player in Nene in the next round.

5. I give myself a B+. I was very happy to snag Marion, Deron Williams and Carmelo Anthony with my top picks. And I also thought Mike Miller, Nene, Anthony Parker and Steve Francis were good value picks. I could have done better then Wilcox, Cat Mobley and Paul Millsap, but overall I am pleased with my squad. I may need to make a trade to bolster my frontline a bit, but if I stay healthy, and that’s a major if, I feel like I can compete for the title. My pick to win the league is Satten’s team from DroppingDimes.com. He has a well-rounded bunch and some guys who could pan out to be excellent sleepers.

Alvin Lai & Ronald Chow, DroppingDimes.com (Al answered the questions)

1. Our strategy was dependent on where we landed in the draft order. Drafting middle-late at ninth overall, we knew we would likely have a shot at filling at least one of our two center slots in the first two rounds. Doing this would free us up to draft the “best available” for the rest of the draft. Yao Ming went earlier than expected so we were left with a choice of Amare Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan and Chris Bosh. Ron and I debated about who to take, but in the end we had our center. Now we just hope Amare stays on the court. In the second round, we were glad to get Al Jefferson even though it meant passing on more established talent. After that, a lot of the other guys were going for sleepers and upside picks quite early, and we chose to make some value picks instead. This freed us up to take some fliers in the last couple of rounds. Overall, we are happy with how the draft went for us.

2. “Best” and “worst” is a matter of opinion and perspective. In the sense that things went more or less the way we hoped, we think we had one of the better drafts. Kelly’s team is banking on Andrei Kirilenko having a huge comeback year, but we do not think he is worth taking a chance on in the fourth round this year. So if there was one team we would not want to trade places with, I guess it would be his. We like the players on Nels’ team and I think he did well. He adopted a strategy opposite to ours in that he did not take a center until later in the draft. We will see how it all plays out.

3. We like the Yao Ming pick even though it was a surprise at No. 5 overall. The way his career is ascending, he has the chance to be an MVP candidate this year. The coaching change in Houston should benefit his game in particular. All that stands in his way is the hated injury bug. On the flip side, we would not have taken the chance on Dwyane Wade with the No. 6 pick overall, especially with Gilbert Arenas and Shawn Marion still available. Wade is obviously a great, great player, but there are too many unknowns right now about his health.

In the middle rounds, the Ben Wallace pick and the aforementioned AK-47 pick in the fourth round stand out as potential mistakes. Big Ben is clearly on the downside on his career. Guys like Antawn Jamison and Kevin Martin were still available. We considered taking Jason Richardson in the fourth round instead of Kirk Hinrich, but decided to fill our point guard slot at that point after drafting Joe Johnson in the previous round. J-Rich went right after Kirilenko in the draft. David Lee in the middle of the fifth round also seems like a major speculative selection. One other pick we raised our collective eyebrows at was Elton Brand at the end of the eighth round. Dennis took him hoping he is a “cavalry” pick later in the season, but there were still a lot of healthy options available.

The best picks from the middle rounds would have to include Channing Frye in the middle of the 9th round by Neil Tardy and although it is a gamble, we’re feeling good vibes about Nels’ Al Horford pick at the end of the 7th round. If he gets major playing time and checks in with 15 points, 10 rebounds and almost two blocks, this pick will be one of the steals of the draft.

For our own team, in the sixth round we debated over whether to take a solid shooting guard/small forward type, like Richard Hamilton, Kyle Korver or Raja Bell, versus a third center like Andrew Bogut. It is questionable whether Bogut will improve to where he is worthy of being drafted here, but a bunch of centers went before our next turn so in the end we are glad we took him. Plus we ended up with Rip, Korver and Raja anyways in the next three rounds.

In the last few rounds, Sarge’s pick of Dorell Wright could be a major steal. Late in the draft, it was very tough to make a pick so I cannot fault Emry for taking Rasho Nesterovic with his last selection. However the Raptors look like they are de-emphasizing his role this year and his fantasy output was not much to begin with.

4. Rookies are fun to have on your team when they pan out. However, we should have taken Dorell Wright instead of Jeff Green in the 12th round. Seattle still needs to work out their starting lineup, while it looks like Wright has a real chance of playing major minutes at small forward for the Heat. Along the same lines, although Al Thornton looks very good in his college highlights, Travis Outlaw was a great pick and was taken three selections later.

5. Success is bred out of confidence. If you do not feel great about your draft right after it’s done, then there was failure to prepare properly. So we give ourselves an ‘A.’ There are still so many things that could turn the tide in this league, including injuries and trades. In a head-to-head league, it is about making the playoffs and then hoping your team peaks at the right time. We think our team has the players to get us to the playoffs and we will take it from there.

For a great read of draft play-by-play, check out Alvin’s account of what was going down in real-time during the draft.

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1. What was your strategy coming into this draft? Did you execute it properly? If not, where did you go wrong?
2. Who had the best draft? Who had the worst draft? Why?
3. What were the best and worst picks of the first three rounds? The middle six rounds? The final three rounds? Why?
4. If you could redo one pick in your draft, which one would it be and why?
5. Grade your draft (A-F). What place will your team finish? Who will win the league and why?
6. Additional comments (optional)?
—————

Sergio Gonzalez, CBSSportsline.com

1. I wanted to draft the best player available according to my rankings regardless of position. That lasted a couple of rounds, but then I went back to trying to build a squad position by position, which is a risky thing to do. I drafted a guy like Mehmet Okur in Round 3 when there were better players according to my rankings only because he’s a center.

2. On paper, or online draft room in this case, it appears GiveMeTheRock.com had the best draft. His team is the most balanced up-and-down with solid value players like Danny Granger, who I feel is in for a breakout campaign as well as Andre Iguodala, who is in for a career season. He also drafted Chris Paul, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng. Try to find a weakness there. His only weakness at the moment is at center, where he’ll be starting rookie Al Horford and Nick Collison – that’s not horrible. As for the worst team, you know how they say that if you can’t find the most annoying person in the room then you are probably that person? Well I can’t find the worst team (and I don’t want to ruffle any feathers), so maybe it is my own.

3. Dwight Howard went with the 11th pick of Round 2. That’s a steal in my opinion for the Doctor. Carmelo Anthony with the eighth pick in Round 3. Another big steal for Slam. He’s going to be challenging for the scoring title this season. I thought Ray Allen in Round 2, although not a bad pick at all, is a bit risky considering his new environment in Boston. Will he be the third scoring option on that team? LaMarcus Aldridge in Round 3 – is he really ready for such a big role? Neither were bad picks, but both were on the risky side. In the middle rounds, Corey Maggette could turn out to be a steal in Round 5 if he pans out to be the go-to-guy with Brand out. David Lee in Round 5 was a bit of a stretch, but he could end up being a low-end double-double guy again. The Knicks will find him his minutes because of the energy he brings off the bench. Once again, I love the Granger pick in Round 5 by Nels. With Jermaine O’Neal teetering on the brink of a blow-up in Indiana, this could be Granger’s team by the All-Star break. In the late rounds, HoopsAddict got a steal-and-a-half by finagling Eddy Curry in Round 10. Round 10! Sure, many signs point to a decline in his production this season, but he picked up a center coming off a breakout season in Round 10! Where was I for all these steals? They don’t call them sleepers for nothing.

4. I didn’t have a pick where I didn’t carefully weigh out the circumstances, but the Okur pick is the one that bugs me the most. I went ahead and took the best center available because we all know how scarce good centers are, but I took him ahead of guys like Luol Deng, Tracy McGrady and Michael Redd. Hopefully that won’t come back to bite me in the end.

5. I’ll give myself a C. I don’t think I did great, but I don’t think I did poorly either. I’ll probably have to do some work not to finish in the middle of the pack, but that’s what the waiver wire is for, right?

Brandon Haraway, DroppingDimes.com

1. I really didn’t come up with a distinct strategy entering this draft. I pretty much wanted to stick to my cheat sheets and follow the strategies I have been using, basing my draft off my first and second picks. I got Pau Gasol first, but when the top PGs were gone, I figured I’d try to shore up threes and keep my percentages high with Rashard Lewis. I figured I could take a PG in the next round and start to fill holes. Well, it turned out my cheat sheets were telling me there was good value screaming at me in the 3rd and 5th, so that pretty much killed any strategy I had left. I had to take Ron Artest and Caron Butler, even though I now had three SFs. Oh well, I figured I’d fill needs as they fell and use those three as trade pieces.

2. I like Dennis’s team a lot, as well as Emry’s. Dennis didn’t reach but stayed balanced through the early rounds, which is tough to do. Emry got Marion very late and complemented him nicely in the early rounds. It’s really tough to tell though right off the bat, because everyone should feel like THEY had the best draft, right? I do like my team, I won’t lie, but that may differ from the opinions of the others. The worst? I don’t know. The LaMarcus Aldridge pick killed Doc, and with LeBron and Dwight in the first rounds, he will struggle with FT% and TO. Still, I drafted this combo in another league too, because it could pan out nicely if either of those guys improve their FT%. It’s awfully tough to tell so early on.
3. The worst pick has to be Aldridge. There’s no reason to take him that high, he’d fall a lot farther than that. Marion is probably the best pick in the first rounds, and Emry can thank the guys in front of him for an early Christmas present. In the middle six, I like my Artest pick, the Ford pick, and the Raja Bell pick. I think there were a lot of reaches here too, like David Lee, Shaq and Mourning. Finally, for the last three rounds, I love the Villanueva and Walton picks. Those will turn out to be steals, unlike the McCants (sucks) and Ridnour (hurt) picks.

I might have taken Tinsley instead of Nelson. I’m not high on Jameer, but I figured Tinsley would fall. No such luck. I may have also taken Peja a bit early, but he’s healthy right now and had 13 points the other day. I’ll take that big upside pick.
5. I love this team, so I’ll give it an A-. I think value varies according to what sites you hang out at, and at least for my site, this was a great draft. I feel like Artest, Butler, Herrmann and Krstic were all great picks, and I can’t see any glaring weaknesses. I’ve also put myself in a position to make a big deal if I need to with a SF. I love the balance of this team.

Ryan McNeill, Hoops Addict

1. Heading into the draft my strategy was to draft some bigs who can score and grab boards and then get some guards for dimes and steals. I feel that my roster is heavy on forwards and centers but with two starting centers, I’m happy with how things fell into place. While I don’t have any stud point guards, I felt that in the mid rounds I did OK for guards with Hughes, A. Miller and Tinsley and then late in the draft getting Ridnour.

2. Ron and Al proved that two heads are better than one with a stellar draft. Their starters are solid, they have good depth at center and they have key backups for every position on the bench. What really impressed me is that they have all the statistical categories covered with key players like Kyle Korver to jack up threes, Parker/Hinrich/Johnson to get dimes, Rip/Amare/JJ to score and rebounders in Amare/Jefferson/Bogut.

The worst draft would be Brandon. During the draft I was frustrated with him drafting players I wanted but after looking at his final product there are huge holes at SG and with his bench. Peja was a nice steal but if he goes down he’s lacking anyone else on his roster to fill in there. Ron Artest is already suspended for the first seven games of the season. Who knows how many games Rotten Ronnie will suit up for this season. Plus, it’s still not clear if Walter Herrmann will be able to reproduce the stats he put up during the end of last season with Charlotte’s offseason additions which could leave him weak at PF.

3. Best pick of the first three rounds was Dwight Howard going with the 11th pick in the second round. I’m biased but I liked getting Shaq in the sixth round after players like Bogut and Darko were drafted. In the late rounds the steal was Drew Gooden going in the 11th round. He’s a potential double-double candidate getting drafted among benchwarmers.

4. I wish I had drafted Dwight Howard instead of Chris Bosh. I let my hometown bias get in the way and I’m now worried that Bosh’s injury issues will haunt me all season.

5. I’d like to give myself a B- but I took some huge risks on players with injury concerns so it’s tough to say how things will pan out. If my guys can stay healthy I could win this thing, but if the injury bug bites then I could quickly find myself at the bottom of the standings.

Ron & Al had a solid draft but I have a sneaking suspicion that Nels will prove why he’s one of the best fantasy hoops bloggers on the ’net and win this whole thing.

—————
1. What was your strategy coming into this draft? Did you execute it properly? If not, where did you go wrong?
2. Who had the best draft? Who had the worst draft? Why?
3. What were the best and worst picks of the first three rounds? The middle six rounds? The final three rounds? Why?
4. If you could redo one pick in your draft, which one would it be and why?
5. Grade your draft (A-F). What place will your team finish? Who will win the league and why?
6. Additional comments (optional)?
—————

Nels Wadycki, GiveMeTheRock.com

1. My strategy was to pick solid people in the first few rounds, and then try to round out a good H2H team with the rest. Simple enough. I wanted to try to hone my H2H strategy a little since I’m in all H2H leagues this year. I did a pretty good job, but I’m not sure about my percentages and blocks. My 3-pointers are also pretty weak considering that Danny Granger has the third most on my team, and he’s playing PF for me. I’m probably relying too much on Kevin Durant and Al Horford for blocks and rebounds. So, really, I’m only feeling okay about points, steals, and maybe assists. My turnovers might actually be pretty decent for the first time in my fantasy career.

2. Doc’s A-Train had the best draft. LeBron, Dwight Howard, LaMarcus Aldridge and Jason Richardson all should have monster years. Jason Terry, TJ Ford and Chris Kaman are all solid picks. The last three roster spots are a little iffy there, but with H2H it should be enough with the power seven to win a lot of games.

Prize for worst obviously goes to Los Chucks. Taking Yao Ming at five was gutsy at best. Following that with Vince Carter was a good move – assuming he plays like the last two years – but then going with Iverson, Kirilenko, Maggette, R. Jefferson and T. Murphy is a sure way to fill the bench with injuries throughout the season. Even with three bench spots, it seems like it’ll be tough to keep a full starting lineup week after week with that team, and you’ll never know when a guy is going to miss just a game or two during the week.
3. Shawn Marion at eight overall was probably the best pick. There are some question marks about his role with the Suns, but seriously, he’s a consensus top-5 pick sitting there until No. 8. I think Caron Butler was a good pick up for Brandon in Round 3.

Worst pick is clearly Yao Ming at No. 5. Los Chucks could have gone with Marion and then picked up any of Howard, Boozer or Camby in the 2nd round. That’s way too big a risk to take for someone who’s played 57 and 48 games the past two seasons.
4. I would have liked to have taken Darko or Andrea Bargnani in the 5th round instead of Danny Granger. Of course, that’s predicated on the knowledge that they both would be taken before it got back to my pick in the 6th round. I wasn’t sure if it was too early for them and was also hoping that they wouldn’t get taken in the two intervening picks. So much for that. Not sure why I went with Granger; I think he was just rated higher overall and I thought I’d have a couple minutes to decide between the other two.

5. I’ll go with a B. Maybe B-. I made solid picks for the most part and feel like I got some good late round picks in. Looking at the other teams, though, I think picking down at 13 hurt me. I think Jed of Dime Magazine picking at 14 also suffered from the drop-off of talent that exists right about at 11.

I’m hoping to come in about 6th. I feel like my team is stable enough (no jinx, please, no jinx) that I’ll be able to pick up some extra wins when other teams start getting injured. Maybe Kevin Durant will turn out to be a super-stud and Delonte West will double his assists by passing to him all the time. Then I’ll maybe move up to 5th.

Jed Berger and Austin Burton, Dime Magazine

1. My strategy on draft day is always the same. Pay attention to categories. Don’t take guys who kill you in any one category. Look for value picks late and don’t take too many big risks early.

As for this draft, I felt like I had to take a few extra risks. Having the last pick in a 14-team draft forces you to really think far ahead because there are some many picks in between players. You really have to pay attention to the harder categories early such as blocks. You also find yourself constantly interested in the best player available. I was really hoping for a Duncan or Gasol to fall to me in the first and would have preferred to go big with my 1st or 2nd round pick but when it came to me, Kidd and Pierce were the two best players on the board and that’s the way I went. My other serious consideration was Chris Bosh or Dwight but I decided to look elsewhere later for straight blocks and boards. In retrospect, that was a tough call.

2. You can almost scrap the first three rounds because it’s basically best player available. So I look 4th on, and honestly, I feel like my draft is right up there. With 14 teams though, I don’t love or hate anyone’s draft. Rather there are picks I like in everyone’s draft and picks I don’t like in everyone’s draft. A lot of the season always comes down to injuries. Everyone knew their stuff and I thought it was overall one of better drafts I’ve been in.

3. Worst picks in the first three rounds – Wade at 6th overall. He’s out for the first month! Roy in the third was a huge stretch. He has injury problems already and seems to be an ongoing health risk. Best in the first three rounds – LeBron at 4th overall is a crazy 4th pick. On average LeBron is still going between 1 and 3. Duncan at 12 and Bosh at 17 back to back is a really nice front court, though I still worry about Bosh’s ongoing health. T-Mac in the third round is a low risk at that point. I’m a fan of LaMarcus Aldridge in the 3rd round and think he’s a good reach.

Worst in the middle six - Charlie Bell in the 7th was way to high. Bell fills a lot of categories when he gets 30-35 minutes but he won’t get those minutes this season. Conley in the 9th (same team) was a reach. As was Chris Wilcox in the 7th round. I thought Corey Brewer in the 8th round was one of the worst picks in the draft.

Best in the middle six - I love that I got Michael Redd in the 4th round (1st pick in the 4th) and I thought I stole Steph in the 7th round. Shaq in the 6th is insane. I took Darko before Shaq! I liked Jameer in the 7th. Nene in the 7th stung me and was a great pick. Terry is always a solid fantasy player and the 5th round is great value. Manu in the 6th is also a nice value pick.

Worst in the last three rounds – I don’t like Devin Harris (10th round) as a fantasy contributor. J.R. Smith (11th) and Jeff Green (12th) will both be on waivers before Week 3.

Best in the last three rounds – my whole three (Navarro, Haywood, Cassell). Eddy Curry in the 10th was a great pick. Francis in the 11th is a tremendous value pick. Grant Hill (11th) still helps you in multiple categories and looks like he’ll hit some threes this year. Brevin Knight (10th round) is a game changer in assists if he’s healthy. Getting Marco Belinelli and Kapono in the 11th and 12th (same team) are great finds. Both will hit over 100 threes this season.

4. I probably should have gone Bosh or Dwight over Pierce. I really believe in Pierce this season and what he’s going to do, but the drop off from Bosh and Dwight to Chandler is significant.

5. I give myself a B. I think I did very well in the middle rounds and late. A lot will depend on how Bargnani and Darko play. I think Darko was one of the riskier picks in the draft, but guys with that shot blocking ability aren’t easy to find. I also really like the value I got with Steph, Maxiell, Navarro, and Cassell. I’ll be in the top four and battle, but my percentage categories definitely make me nervous.

6. I was big time disappointed with Yahoo’s draft room. I drafted with Austin (Managing Editor of Dime) and the Yahoo room has serious technical problems if two people, both co-owners in the system, are in the room together. It caused chaos for the first two rounds and eventually only I was able to stay in the room.

That wraps up this detailed draft analysis. We hope you enjoyed reading this as much as we did drafting in this league.

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