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Monday October 13, 2008 6:43 am

Dropping Dimes Mock Draft: Round 4, Pick 5 - Michael Redd

Michael Redd vs Dirk Nowitzki
The talent pool must not have gone shallow yet if 20 point-per-game Olympians remain available in the fourth round. Adding this player to a team that has Dirk Nowitzki would have made for very sound strategy, but Dirk’s team picks next. On this particular team, he fills a glaring need.

Round 4, Pick 5: Michael Redd, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks

Researching this article, it surprised a bit that Redd has small forward eligibility on Yahoo. In years past he was listed as a shooting guard only. He possesses a very low-risk offensive game with a proven track record. Check out his three year best and worst averages in the major categories.

Best: 80 GP, 46.5 FG%, 87.7 FT%, 26.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.4 apg, 2.2 3pt, 1.2 spg, 0.2 bpg, 2.1 topg

Worst: 53 GP, 44.3 FG%, 82.0 FT%, 22.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.8 3pt, 0.9 spg, 0.1 bpg, 2.5 topg

Add in an extra 30-40 steals per season, and people would pick Redd as a surefire second or third round pick. His relatively pedestrian theft totals as well as his injury history mark him down to a fourth round value pick. He shoots free throws at a high volume, so the stellar percentage there packs a lot of punch. Still, he lags behind the elite guards not only because of the steals, but also because of his lack of distributing the ball to team mates. Players like Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade provide point-guard level production in assists which is part of what makes them first rounders. Count Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce among those who also rank ahead of Redd for this reason. Even with Mo Williams traded to Cleveland, do not expect any bump up in Redd’s assist numbers.

The shooting guard position is deep, though, so drafting a couple of big men like this team did in Elton Brand and Marcus Camby and then adding a back-court player like Redd makes for some decent strategy. Jose Calderon was taken in the third round; picking guards who play efficiently complement a big ball team well. Bet on both Camby and Calderon to average less than 15 ppg this year, so Redd and his scoring fill in that team weakness.

Players like Danny Granger and Rashard Lewis make for better players at the small forward position than Redd, since Redd does not hit the boards like those players do. On this team, another rebounder will likely eventually fill that three spot.



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