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Thursday September 4, 2008 11:45 am

Dropping Dimes Mock Draft -: Round 2, Pick 2: Tim Duncan

TD
Gilbert Arenas was taken in the first round with the 11th pick, an interesting move by Sarge. What to do in the second round? Agent Zero needs to come back from last season’s injury-laced campaign. Thus the non-gambling conservative in me suggests putting the dice away and going with a safe, boring and unexciting pick.

Round 2, Pick 2: Tim Duncan, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs

The Fig Cap: So you picked me. And you’re not happy about it. Not like I’m jumping for joy either.

Here are TD’s best and worst numbers from the past three seasons. I continue to post the stats this way because every year it seems people overemphasize the numbers from the prior season and a three-year sample provides a range of statistics to consider.

Best: 80 GP, 54.6 FG%, 73.0 FT%, 20.0 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 3.4 apg, 0.0 3pg, 0.9 spg, 2.4 bpg, 2.3 topg

Worst: 78 GP, 48.4 FG%, 62.9 FT%, 18.6 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 0.0 3pg, 0.7 spg, 2.0 bpg, 2.8 topg

Here is what comes to mind while writing about TD in early September, roughly 4-6 weeks before most drafts happen.

1. The rebounding average from 2007-08 is the highest in four years.

2. The FT% is the highest since 2001-02 when TD shot 79.9%. That led to his career best ppg over a season, 25.5 ppg.

3. He did NOT play in the Olympics. Among the casualties from Beijing are Manu Ginobili, Jose Calderon and Yao Ming.

4. With Manu out, TD will likely be asked to do more than he usually does during the infant stages of the season. Take it as a sell high opportunity.

5. Yes, unless you live in San Antonio, you dislike the Spurs. TD never does anything cool, and he’s always caught on TV whining to the refs. And his team has won a bunch of titles. Just put that aside. Ignore all that if you feel he is good value. He could easily fall out of the second round just because of his personality.

6. TD has been on the floor consistently over the last few seasons. Before that, he failed to log more than 70 games two years in a row, but with experience he has learned how to survive the long grind of the season. With Arenas already on the team, drafting Baron Davis or Marcus Camby makes for too much risky business in my book.

7. With Arenas in tow, I want a team that can put up points. Camby will likely be ranked higher provided he plays enough games, but week to week, TD is a better #2 fantasy option behind Arenas on a team. Perhaps if Camby were a lock to clear 50% in field goal percentage, it would be a different story.

8. What is the real difference between TD and guys like Amare and KG? If TD keeps his FT% respectable again, you get almost equal though less fun value 8-10 picks later.

9. If you know your league mates well, and anticipate TD dropping in the draft, by all means, pick someone else and take him as a very solid third round steal. Weird labeling TD a steal since he is so well established, but there you go.

10. Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer would be the more popular big man picks around here (other than Camby). But both played in the Olympics, and I’ve been digging Sarge’s take on NBAers playing FIBA ball and getting injured. Plus those two guys have injury question marks above their head, and do not provide the blocks like a big man should.

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