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Thursday August 24, 2006 12:51 pm

Dropping Dimes Draft Blog: Round 1, Pick 12

DescriptionRound 1, Pick 12: Ray Allen

On the plus side…

Like the players taken before him, Jesus Shuttlesworth’s game sells itself. Last year he finished 10th in scoring (25.1 ppg), 3rd in free throw percentage (90.3%), and first in three-pointers made per game (3.5). He has a nice all-around game, by being able to couple his point production with about 4 rebounds and 4 assists per game for his career. Throughout his career he has been good for just under 1.5 steals a game. It is not the sexy two-plus swipes a game that the Matrix, AK-47 or Chris Paul can deliver, but it was good enough to place him inside the top 20 in steals last year.

A little more should be said about his dominance in moneyballs last year. The players that trailed behind him are no chumps. Gilbert Arenas, Kobe Bryant, Chauncey Billups,, the list goes on; they all trailed Ray Ray by a full trey or more per game. Based on his own production, this translates into more than 28% more treys than his closest competitor. To put this in perspective, Kobe Bryant would have needed a scoring average of 45.8 ppg to outdistance Allen Iverson by the same percentage of difference. Kevin Garnett’s rebounding average would need to be about 17.4 for it to beat Dwight Howard by a similar proportional margin. That has not been seen since Big Ben was in his prime or in the days of Dennis Rodman. The bottom line is that Allen DOMINATED the three-point category last year. To get someone who can win a category for you with little support is a coup at this point in the draft.

On the flip side…

Fantasy ballers have to keep position eligibility in mind when they draft players. The depth at shooting guard and small forward is infinite compared to the center position. In leagues that incorporate two center slots like ours, filling one of them early is logical and sound strategy. This has to be considered when you go with a guard like Allen here. It will be a long time before I get to pick again after making my wrap-around pick. Blocks in particular are a worry already.

In terms of Allen’s game specifically, his field goal percentage is average at best. It depends how you look at it. Considering how many three-pointers he takes, 45% is quite good.

The final score…

Tallying it all up, I chose to take the points and dominance in threes that Ray puts up with a decent all-around game for a guard rather than take a big man who has tragic flaws (usually FT%) or injury issues (peep this if you haven’t already). Dennis saved me from needing to make a tough choice by taking Yao Ming just before my turn to pick. Now the question is who should be Robin to Ray’s Batman?

Next up, the second round! Peace.

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