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Tuesday September 12, 2006 10:47 am

Draft Blog Player Combinations




Posted by Alvin Lai Categories: H2H, Roto, Site Features, Talent,

Kidd and Kobe Teaming Jason Kidd up with Kobe Bryant makes this, arguably (and I appreciate all comments), the best 1-2 guard combo thus far. - Dennis Velasco (see Jason Kidd post)

Kobe and Jason Kidd make a sweet guard combo for one of Dennis’ teams, provided Kobe recovers from knee surgery (and he will) and Kidd continues to produce during the downslope of his career (more iffy, but should be good for this year). Is Kobe/Kidd the best guard combo thus far? Is Kobe/Kidd the best combo

period

thus far? Here on Dropping Dimes, we aim to spit it only when we hit it. So let us take a look at whether Dennis walks the walk.

We have kept this draft blog general so that we have the opportunity to discuss all kinds of leagues. Head-to-head can be more about a player’s averages because the match-ups are week to week. Rotisserie leagues in the end are about yearly totals. So for the purposes of this exercise, a player’s averages and totals based on the 2005-06 season were used. I considered using other ways to compare our teams, like the last three seasons, the top three seasons, and career stats, but since a player who only has one year in the books was picked (Chris Paul), I decided to use last year’s stats only.

The 12 combos drafted in our blog were compared using 1) last year’s per game averages and 2) last year’s totals, which of course would take games played into account. Because Amare Stoudemire was lost for pretty much the entire year, a team of Lebron James and the Amare of 2004-05 was also thrown into the mix. The combos were then ranked rotisserie style.

Rankings based on season averages
1. Kobe Bryant/Jason Kidd…72
2. Shawn Marion/Ben Wallace...70
3. Lebron James/Amare Stoudemire (circa 2004-05)...70
4. Kevin Garnett/Rasheed Wallace...69
5. Ray Allen/Allen Iverson...68
6. Dirk Nowitzki/Chauncey Billups...65
7. Chris Bosh/Paul Pierce...61
8. Yao Ming/Andrei Kirilenko...60
9. Chris Paul/Steve Nash...59
10.Gilbert Arenas/Tim Duncan...59
11.ELton Brand/Pau Gasol...58
12.Dwyane Wade/Jermaine O’Neal...58
13.Lebron James/Amare Stoudemire (circa 2005-06)...50

Rankings based on season totals
1. Marion/B. Wallace…74
2. Garnett/R. Wallace…73
3. Bryant/Kidd…71
4. James/Amare (circa 2004-05)...71
5. Nowitzki/Billups…71
6. Allen/Iverson…68
7. Arenas/Duncan…63
8. Brand/Gasol…63
9. Bosh/Pierce…62
10.Paul/Nash…61
11.Wade/J. O’Neal…55
12.Yao/Kirilenko…53
13.James/Stoudemire (circa 2005-06)...34

Overall, it is very close. Consider that there are nine categories, and in this roto-style of ranking, moving up one spot in each category would lead to a nine point jump. Six teams are within nine points of the top slot in both rankings. The remaining teams are all within striking distance (defined here as nine points or less) of the top half of the standings with the exception of Sarge’s Lebron/Amare combo. However because we all know Amare’s deal from last year, this finding is expected.

It turns out that there is a compelling case that Dennis backs up his trash talk.  Kobe and Kidd finished on top of the average rankings and third in the totals rankings. They finished first when the two rankings are combined together. Despite their low FG% (they finished last in both rankings), overall they did well based on their consistency in FT% (4th in both rankings), treys (2nd in both), points (4th and 3rd respectively), assists (2nd in both) and steals (2nd in both). It also helped that they did not finish last in blocks (3 “points” in both rankings) and turnovers (7 and 4 “points” respectively).

Despite the heat I gave Dennis with his pick of Ben Wallace, the Marion/Big Ben combo also did very well, finishing second in the average rankings and first in the total rankings. These two were category leaders in FG%, rebounds and steals. They finished in the top three in blocks and turnovers. I am happy to give Dennis his props, but I do think that my points come up in this analysis as well. The Matrix and Ben finished last in FT%, near the bottom in points (1 and 3 “points”) and assists (1 and 2 “points”). I will definitely be watching and learning who Dennis picks next and how this fits into the grand scheme of things.

These rankings show the high-risk/high-reward potential of Amare. If he can live up to his standard of two seasons ago, Sarge will be sitting pretty. If not, it will be a tough obstacle to overcome. Yao and AK-47 is the other combo with injury woes from last season. Yao and Kirilenko finished middle of the pack in the average rankings, but these results are skewed by the fact that there are no guards on the team yet, and thus their totals in threes and assists suffer. The same can be said of Brand/Gasol and similar thinking should be applied to Paul/Nash.

The Tim Duncan team finished 10th in FT%. Sarge likes to pick on me for this, but one of his teams, even buoyed by the hype 2004-05 season of Amare, finished below Arenas/TD in FT%.

It comes out a little that players that do not do what is generally expected out of their position, end up weakening a fantasy team. Wade does not hit a lot of treys and Bosh is not an elite blocker. However, a team is not made of two players, and there is plenty of opportunity to address these issues.

Of course Pau Gasol will be nowhere near his totals from last year. But for this academic exercise, I can confirm that him and Brand finished in the top third in FG%, rebounds, blocks and turnovers. They are middle of the pack in points based on last year’s stats, and everything else is hurtin’. Now more than ever, the small ball cats need to be considered for this team.

Finally it does look like there is an advantage in having a top 5 pick. Teams anchored by ‘Bron, Dirk, Marion, KG and Kobe finished in the top 6 in both rankings. Only the wrap-around combo of Allen and Iverson were able to keep pace. These elite players allow a fantasy owner to accentuate team strengths. You will not find a 20 ppg scorer from last year among Kidd, the Wallaces, Billups and Amare, but these combos have their teams looking great thus far.

Anybody can pick a couple of stars at the beginning of the draft. Not that there is no drama or intrigue early on, but the grunt work needed to win the championship is on the horizon with the early/middle rounds coming up.

Stay tuned.

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